Africa slow to map out plans for brave new world
Scenario planners and technology buffs constantly remind us about the new world that is coming; a world in which traditional sectors and jobs will be replaced by a myriad new products, business trends and jobs that don’t yet exist.
It is unusual to attend a business event in Africa where discussions about technology disruption and innovation are not on the menu. The enduring question is where Africa fits in.
A continent with high levels of unemployment, low skills, poor education, large rural populations with little infrastructure and little capacity to develop existing natural capital would seem to be a long way from this glossy new world, labelled the fourth industrial revolution by the World Economic Forum.
Some say Africa is still stuck in the second industrial revolution, with governments prioritising industrial programmes and skills that will be transformed, and even marginalised, by technology trends.
While African oil producers continue to rely on oil sales to buoy their economies, many analysts predict that oil consumption will drop by up to 50% in the next decade as demand for electric cars rises in developed markets.
Fossil fuels are starting to be yesterday’s news in an increasingly “green” world. Nigeria, which is trying to attract investors to its coal industry, and SA, which is still building coal-fired power stations, are among countries being criticised for being out of touch with the way the world is moving.
New skills and competencies required by the fourth industrial revolution are not being created in schools in Africa, where millions of children do not have classrooms, let alone access to computers.
But the prognosis is not all bad. Change also brings new windows of opportunity.
For example, renewable energy is growing rapidly in the absence of reliable grid power and infrastructure deficits, with investors, funders and consumers starting to move towards alternative solutions because they make sense on this underdeveloped continent.
The huge take-up of new technology innovations in Africa signals an appetite for change. There are about 200 innovation hubs across the continent and thousands of technology-related initiatives under development.
Mining is a key industry in this new world in which there is a growing demand for metals and minerals found in abundance in Africa: copper, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite and titanium, for example.
Manufacturers are investing billions in electric cars that use large amounts of copper; batteries using lithium and cobalt are being re-engineered for more ambitious uses, titanium demand is growing as 3D printing evolves, and so on.
Can Africa keep up? There are many pockets of change and excellence but they remain exceptions rather than the rule.
Already regulation is not keeping up with technology in most countries.
For example, the World Bank reports that up to 70% of African countries with the lowest levels of electrification have barely looked at setting up an enabling environment for alternative energy sources.
Commodity producers, some of them still undermined by conflict and poor governance, remain hostage to the old model of exporting raw materials rather than creating new value chains.
Electric cars are unlikely to be in showrooms in Lagos or Nairobi any time soon as the cities battle with inadequate infrastructure and chaotic traffic.
And despite high expenditure on education, most countries have poor educational outcomes and a dearth of skills development.
Surviving a disruptive and disrupted future requires not only political will, but a complete mind-set change among policy makers and regulators as well as companies and institutions that will have to adapt to keep up. Without this, Africa will face further marginalisation.
NEW COMPETENCIES REQUIRED BY THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION ARE NOT BEING CREATED IN SCHOOLS