Tesla is expected to lead the pack
More than a dozen vehicle makers are jostling to lead the US electric car race, but Bloomberg New Energy Finance sees a clear winner separating from the pack: Tesla.
More than a dozen vehicle makers are jostling to lead the US electric car race, but Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) sees a clear winner separating from the pack: Tesla.
The car manufacturer led by CEO Elon Musk will emerge as “the standout” in total cumulative deliveries to 2021, reaching nearly 709,000 vehicles, according to BNEF’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook released on Thursday.
Tesla is projected to pull away from General Motors (GM), which may slip behind Volkswagen’s (VW’s) aggregate sales of plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles in four years’ time. The report reinforces the optimism among some analysts that Tesla will be able to distance itself from established vehicle makers and dominate many of the world’s biggest markets for battery-powered vehicles.
Investors have bid the company’s shares up 53% in 2017 in anticipation of Musk debuting the Model 3 sedan, a more affordable car he is counting on to crack the mass market.
“If they can stick to the Model 3 timeline, they’re going to be at the front edge of this for a while,” BNEF analyst Colin McKerracher said of Tesla.
While BNEF expects Tesla, GM and VW to lead the charge by electric vehicles in 2021, the research group predicts at least three other car makers will have also surpassed the 200,000 cumulative sales mark in the US by that year.
After crossing that threshold, buyers are no longer eligible for the full federal $7,500 tax credit towards purchases of vehicles from those manufacturers.
Hitting the 200,000 unit milestone would portend more sustainable demand for electric vehicles. Though BNEF expects some effect from the federal tax credit phase-out, industry sales could be even higher because the analysts’ short-term forecasts are based only on electrified models disclosed to date. Product introduction schedules for 2020 and 2021 are still taking shape.
BNEF made its forecasts before Volvo announced plans on Wednesday to offer only hybrid or full-electric motors on every new model launched starting in 2019.
BNEF’s prediction that VW could climb to the No 2 spot by 2021 was “the most contentious”, McKerracher said.
The German vehicle manufacturer does not yet have the same presence in the US market as other electric-focused manufacturers, though the opportunity is there for the company.