The more the ANC pushes, the less change happens

If you were an investor from overseas and were waiting for the ANC policy conference outcomes to make a decision about possible investment in SA, help is at hand.

SA achieved democracy 23 years ago and inherited a near bankrupt state. Under the new administration it adopted numerous economic policies, from the Reconstruction and Development Programme through to the National Development Plan.

You’d need a master’s degree to decipher the difference between the policies, but the ANC has just held its fifth policy conference and these policies are set to not change for the fifth time.

This is what you can work with on issues of consistency — the one certain thing is uncertainty. There are policies, such as those on land and education, that were adopted as far back as the Polokwane conference in 2007 that have not been implemented and were simply re-endorsed at the most recent policy conference.

This means that to take a long-term view, you can expect no change for at least the next decade, if the track record of the administration is anything to go by.

Formal economic policies with acronyms such as Gear and Asgisa are just new versions of each other and do not represent anything like the “radical economic change” ANC leaders constantly preach in public platforms.

You will learn fast as a new investor not to take seriously pronouncements made by ANC leaders on platforms where the target is voters, as opposed to things they say in the hallowed halls of the Group of 20 (G-20) and IMF meetings.

Just recently, Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba could not bring himself to repeat the slogan “radical economic transformation” to the IMF, even though this was ostensibly the basis on which he was publicly appointed.

He subsequently revealed that inclusive growth is the same thing as radical economic growth. At the same meeting, the minister assured us that there would be no policy change of the kind that should worry investors.

At various rallies, his boss, President Jacob Zuma, has been drumming up support for radical change ahead of the policy conference that was concluded last week, including a call to take land without compensation from white landowners, who he publicly accused of land theft a year earlier.

Yet three days after the policy conference, a refined message seems to prevail at the G-20 meeting, where there was no call to the most industrialised countries to throw their weight behind anything radical.

This time, the president led the charge himself in calling for inclusive growth. This is not stage fright in the face of the big global bosses, merely a sense of occasion.

Don’t be fooled. The relationship between government and business is at a record low. Gigaba’s first road show was done solo, to assure the likes of you that all is well and that when you operate in this country, you should not be under the illusion that business will be taken seriously.

Political power is with the government. Your counterparts here at home are sitting on close to R1-trillion that they are yet to invest. This is the real state capture, where investments are likely to be released based on who gets to lead the ANC in December.

Yes, sadly we have another six months of policy waffle, which may or may not mean that the policies will change.

If I were you, I wouldn’t worry about any economic indicators emerging from the mouths of ministers other than that of finance, as it could be confusing. For example, there are rumours about changing the mandate of the central bank and picking up the rand if it weakens.

This is a campaign of the old and new presidential protectors — it is being opposed by the big banks here at home as well as the finance ministry. Even the ANC believes a change of Reserve Bank ownership is likely to change nothing anyway, which raises the question of why it wants to change it at all.

THERE ARE POLICIES … ADOPTED AT THE POLOKWANE CONFERENCE IN 2007 THAT HAVE NOT BEEN IMPLEMENTED