Lions odds on for home victory against Sharks
Statistical analysis reveals the size of the mountain the Sharks have to scale when they square off against the Lions at Ellis Park in their Super Rugby eliminator on Saturday.
The Lions last weekend beat the Sharks in Durban to seal their spot at the top of the points table‚ while the Durban side seemed content‚ if not happy‚ to grab the last qualification spot.
They may have dodged a trip to Christchurch‚ but portents for Saturday’s visitors to Ellis Park hardly look encouraging.
Not only have the Sharks lost their last five Super Rugby clashes against the Lions‚ but on four of those occasions the margin of defeat exceeded 12 points.
Moreover‚ over the past year-and-a-half the Lions have been zealously territorial when visiting teams have emerged from the Ellis Park tunnel.
Since their 50-17 thumping by the Hurricanes at the end of April 2016‚ the Lions have been in imperious form at home. They have won 13 straight games racking up 634 points at an average of 48 points per match.
They have not been too shabby away from home either, losing only to the Jaguares (twice) and the 2016 final against the Hurricanes.
Significantly‚ however‚ they have not faced New Zealand opposition this season.
Still‚ racking up one home win after the other is no fluke.
“Obviously we are in a good position‚” said stand-in captain Jaco Kriel.
“The confidence is high‚ [but] you still have to go out and do the work. On the day it is zerozero. You can’t get comfortable.
“We have to work hard this week. The guys can’t just pitch on Saturday and play a good game. We have lots to fix.”
Coach Johan Ackermann is in agreement.
“We were in this situation last year and we are back at home‚” said Ackermann about his team’s hard fought‚ error-ridden 27-10 win over the Sharks.
“It is nice to be at home but it is not going to do the job for us if we don’t put in a better performance than we did in Durban.”
He argues that his team’s recent record against the Sharks should not count for much.
In fact‚ the Sharks proved formidable opposition in their last outing at Ellis Park. In the end the hosts prevailed 34-29‚ but they were made to sweat.
“It’s a totally new game‚” said the coach.
“Both coaches will look at tactics and see where they can adjust. It’s going to take an 80minute performance in which the side with the least mistakes under pressure will win.
“Penalties and discipline will come into play. We will start fresh and respect them for what they can bring.” /