SA’s future in hands of Mbete and 50 ANC MPs

• Speaker likely to announce secret ballot decision on Monday • Opposition on standby to approach top court

Opposition parties have put the ANC “on trial”, pitting the governing party with its defence of President Jacob Zuma against South Africans who have for years been calling on him to step down.

On Monday, National Assembly Speaker Baleka Mbete will announce her decision on whether Tuesday’s vote on the motion of no confidence brought by opposition parties against Zuma will be held by secret ballot.

Leading opposition parties are on standby to challenge her decision at the Constitutional Court should Mbete declare an open vote.

Dali Mpofu, chairman of the EFF, said on Sunday the party would go to court to test the rationality of such a decision.

The DA would take the speaker’s reasons into account when taking a decision on how to proceed, said federal chairman James Selfe. Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng had provided an outline for rationality in the Constitutional Court judgment on a secret ballot, he said.

United Democratic Movement leader Bantu Holomisa, who brought the initial application on the secret ballot to the Constitutional Court, said his party would assess Mbete’s reasons and consult with other opposition parties on the best way forward. He would also “check the energy of the country” before deciding on the way forward, should Mbete announce an open vote.

The ANC’s national executive committee has instructed its MPs to toe the party line and vote to retain Zuma as president. Compliance with the order can be easily monitored in an open ballot, which the opposition say will be used to victimise and discipline those ANC MPs who defy the instruction.

Holomisa said he would be surprised if Mbete allowed a secret ballot because of threats of disciplinary action against ANC MPs who voted against Zuma. This is apart from death threats received by ANC MP Makhosi Khoza, an outspoken critic of Zuma’s leadership.

A simple majority of the National Assembly’s 400 members is required to fire the president. The ANC has 249 members, meaning at least 50 ANC MPs will have to vote against the president for the motion to succeed.

“It is the ANC on trial in this whole set-up,” said Holomisa.

“If Cyril Ramaphosa, Blade Nzimande and Pravin Gordhan vote for Zuma, who will trust them towards 2019.”

Apart from the parliamentary or legal processes set to unfold during the motion of no confidence vote, opposition parties have placed the ANC in an untenable situation politically.

A victory for the ANC and Zuma in the motion will be irrelevant should the support for his removal be as widespread as opposition parties, civil society and even some ANC veterans and alliance partners claim it is.

Civil society protest marches will be held in various parts of the country this week, which will be a barometer of support for Zuma’s removal.

The first such march will take place on Monday afternoon in Cape Town and other protests will be held across the country on Tuesday. The South African Council of Churches also called

on “all people of faiths” to take part in the protests as Zuma’s government “has lost moral legitimacy”.

Crowds of demonstrators took to the streets in April after Zuma’s Cabinet reshuffle, which hit the economy hard, calling on him to step down.

According to senior sources in Parliament, who wished to remain anonymous, the “unintended consequences” of the motion will come back to bite the ANC. They describe the motion as an ”unwinnable situation” for the governing party. But it is not just opposition parties and civil society who are pushing for the motion against Zuma to succeed.

ANC alliance partner the South African Communist Party will be taking part in the Cape Town march to call on Zuma to step down.

It has about 50 MPs representing the ANC and has not instructed them how to vote. Although it has called for Zuma to step down, the ANC’s labour ally, Cosatu, does not want ANC MPs to vote with the opposition to remove Zuma. Business Day understands Cosatu is worried about the potential effect Zuma’s removal through a motion of no confidence will have on the ANC and government. It fears the government may collapse, leading to ANC factions fighting on how to move beyond Zuma.

A group of ANC veterans and stalwarts, agitating for change wrote an open letter to ANC MP’s on Sunday, urging them to vote with their conscience to remove Zuma.