Parties lobby ANC MPs to oust Zuma
• Intense canvassing ahead of no-confidence vote • Top six to seek support from party caucus
Tension and uncertainty gripped the ANC caucus on Monday as opposition parties mounted an intense lobbying campaign to try to get governing party MPs to vote in support of a motion to unseat President Jacob Zuma.
The debate is due to take place on Tuesday afternoon.
National Assembly Speaker Baleka Mbete’s surprise decision to allow MPs a secret ballot emboldened the opposition, who believe the move would allow some ANC MPs to support the DA-sponsored motion to end Zuma’s reign as president.
The rand gained more than 15c to the dollar on Monday almost immediately after Mbete’s announcement‚ trading at R13.1985 from R13.4183.
Business Day understands that Mbete’s decision hinged on legal advice she received to avert another court judgment against her.
For the motion to succeed, 201 MPs of the 400-strong National Assembly must support it. The ANC has 249 seats, so, at least 50 of its MPs will need to break ranks for Zuma to be removed from office.
What remains uncertain is how the 17 South African Communist Party (SACP) MPs will vote. Business Day understands these MPs, who have called on Zuma to resign, were angry at the weekend after comments from their party leaders indicating that MPs should “toe the ANC line” in the debate.
The SACP’s national officials were meeting on Monday night to discuss Mbete’s decision and what the party’s approach should be regarding the motion, given that the communist party has a standing decision for Zuma to step down.
Mbete, who is ANC chairwoman, has ambitions to become president herself. It is understood she briefed ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe on her decision.
An ANC national working committee meeting was held in Cape Town on Monday and it is understood its top six leaders including Zuma, will meet the party’s caucus on Tuesday
morning in a clear attempt to make sure MPs vote against the opposition motion.
“I can tell you a lot of us received messages and calls from opposition parties who want us to support the motion … the general feeling is that some MPs will support the vote against Zuma, but this will not be enough to remove him,” said one ANC MP.
“I think Baleka’s decision has created a lot of uncertainty. There are a lot of unhappy MPs who might vote to remove Zuma now that the voting will be in secret. But it is highly unlikely this motion will succeed. It’s clear some members fear they will lose their jobs [as MPs] should the motion succeed,” said another MP, who backs the motion.
The DA tabled the motion following Zuma’s March cabinet reshuffle, which resulted in the firing of then finance minister Pravin Gordhan and his deputy, Mcebisi Jonas.
Defiant ANC MPs Mondli Gungubele and Makhosi Khoza have indicated they will support the motion. Others, including Gordhan and Derek Hanekom, have indicated they support a “conscience vote”.
ANC chief whip Jackson Mthembu has called a three-line whip — a clear instruction that all party MPs must attend Tuesday’s sitting unless sick or out on government business — to quash the motion.
Deputy chief whip Doris Dlakude, ANC MP Pule Mabe, Arts and Culture Minister Nathi Mthethwa and Defence Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula are on the ANC speakers’ list for Tuesday’s debate.
“We reiterate our stance that the ANC will vote against this motion. We will not vote with the opposition to collapse our democratically elected government,” said Mthembu.
The EFF believes there will be sufficient support among ANC MPs in favour of the motion to tip the scales and that on Wednesday, SA will have an acting president in Mbete.
DA leader Mmusi Maimane said his party would continue talking to ANC MPs, urging them to listen to their conscience.
EFF chief whip Floyd Shivambu said his party was confident Zuma would be voted out of office.
“We have not stopped speaking to ANC members. They have been very clear that if there is a secret ballot, they will vote against Zuma. Our understanding is we will be having a different president than Zuma.”
United Democratic Movement leader Bantu Holomisa said the secret ballot gave those ANC MPs who had voiced their opposition to Zuma an opportunity to vote against him.
Political analyst and constitutional law expert Shadrack Gutto said the outcome of Tuesday’s vote would largely depend on what the ANC did from Monday to Tuesday afternoon.
Should the motion succeed, the Constitution made it clear that Zuma and the Cabinet should step down, he said.