Government on hold as ANC focuses on December elections
With the political scene totally dominated by the crisis in the ANC, the Gupta scandals and the race for a new ANC president, government and the work of government have dropped off the agenda.
The paralysis is palpable. It is widely understood that “nothing will happen before December”, after which everything could change, including the president, the Cabinet, directors-general of departments and the roles and status of numerous senior public servants.
Government departments are already spilling over with duplicate layers of staff who have been left stranded when those who appointed them — directors-general or cabinet ministers — were removed through reshuffles and redeployments. Another layer of people will flow in to compete for the office furniture after December.
Several cabinet ministers, premiers, MECs and their staff are also caught up in campaigning for positions in the ANC’s top six. Party political work will take up an increasing amount of time of government officials as we get closer to the ANC’s national elective conference in December.
The ANC’s crisis has consumed the government’s work; everything is on hold. As always, though, hidden social processes are at work. While the government fiddles, both it and the people are getting poorer. It is not a good time for the executive to go on leave.
The fiscal picture is deteriorating, with less tax revenue expected to be raised due to lower growth and the general economic malaise. To stick to the expenditure ceiling, budget cuts will have to be made.
The disproportionately large public sector wage increase in 2015, which raised the wage bill 10% while budgets rose by much less, has already eaten into the funding of service delivery. The effects can be seen in the provinces.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the health department has slashed the number of medical registrars and has failed to place community service doctors in positions because of budget constraints. In Limpopo, the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, teachers have begun to report that schools are not receiving their full funding per pupil allocation and that the sums paid over for norms and standards are falling even further than before.
The National Health Laboratory Service is on the brink of collapse as provincial health departments are failing to pay their bills.
Pressure on poor and working-class households is also increasing. Over the past two years, GDP growth has not kept pace with population growth, with the result that South Africans, measured by GDP per capita, are getting poorer.
Over the past six months, the unemployment rate has found a 14-year high at 27.7% even as more people drop out of actively seeking work. In the second quarter of 2017, the net job loss was 113,000, driven by a bloodbath in the construction sector. More damage is on the way, with the mining industry warning in recent days that it is seeking to cut 21,000 jobs.
WHILE THE GOVERNMENT FIDDLES, IT AND THE PEOPLE ARE GETTING POORER. IT IS A BAD TIME FOR THE EXECUTIVE TO GO ON LEAVE
When the government emerges again to govern in 2018 — very likely with a new executive and a new set of public officials crowding out the incumbents — SA will be a harder place to live in if you are poor and a harder place to govern.
The country made great gains in the first two decades of democracy in terms of reducing absolute levels of poverty and improving livelihoods. But those gains are now starting to slip away.
While it is becoming dull and repetitive to discuss the failings of Jacob Zuma and his presidency in newspaper columns, we will be counting the real damage long after he is gone.