Following the old script — so far

Reactions to North Korea’s latest provocation have followed the age-old script: Pyongyang insisted it was exercising its legitimate right to self-defence by firing a ballistic missile over Japan.

For the US, South Korea and especially Japan it was an exceedingly provocative gesture. So much so that Japan activated its alert system and conducted drills to test its antiballistic missiles. South Korean President Moon Jae-in ordered live fire drills to exhibit his country’s “overwhelming” firepower, with an officer counter-threatening the North’s leadership with “extermination”. US President Donald Trump repeated his previous warning that “all options are on the table”.

The story has been unfolding exactly the same way as on each past occasion and the outcome seems set to be the same: Pyongyang and its critics continuing wrangling over chicken-or-egg causality, with the former refusing to give up its nuclear pursuit and the latter remaining hopelessly divided over what to do.

If Pyongyang’s latest provocation has exposed the helplessness of the international coalition against its nuclear and missile programmes, the worst may be yet to come. One fundamental reason for the international community’s inability to curb North Korea’s dangerous adventure has been the contradictory agendas of those that ostensibly have a shared interest in denuclearising the Korean Peninsula.

Pyongyang’s continuous provocations may serve as a catalyst for the potential deployment of additional but controversial and divisive US strategic weapons in South Korea. This would do little to prevent the feared civilian losses if a war with the North were to break out, but it could seriously undermine the precious, though already weak, global consensus on the denuclearisation of the peninsula as it will constitute a potential threat to Chinese and Russian national security — and inevitably invite strong reactions from both. Beijing, August 31.