Kenya poll rerun on knife’s edge
• Death threats and divisions among electoral commission members hamper preparations for an election scheduled for October 17
Death threats to top members of Kenya’s electoral body are endangering preparations for a rerun of August’s annulled presidential election, a senior official at the authority said.
The relatives of one administrator at the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) fled the country after their lives were threatened, while chairman Wafula Chebukati made additional security arrangements for his family, said the official, who asked not to be identified citing personal safety reasons.
“The fact that there’s a split at the IEBC and the fact that threats are being made to specific commissioners means we have external influences controlling the IEBC,” said Dismas Mokua, an analyst at Nairobi-based riskadvisory firm Trintari.
“There’s a very high risk that the wrangling between the commissioners and the external influences may compromise the ability of the IEBC to prepare a free, fair and credible election.”
The election is scheduled for October 17.
The seven-member commission is split over issues including the removal of staff suspected of being complicit in the August 8 vote. The Supreme Court nullified the outcome of the ballot, the first time a presidential-election result has been legally overturned in Africa, after finding the commission committed unspecified “irregularities and illegalities” and failed to conduct the vote in line with the constitution.
There is a risk that if the commissioners are not able to tackle their differences there could be a repeat of violence triggered by a disputed 2007 election that left more than 1,100 people dead, the official said.
GROWTH SLUMP
Following that election, economic growth slumped to 1.7% in 2008 from 7.1% a year earlier and the shilling plunged as much as 15% against the dollar.
Kenya is the world’s biggest black-tea exporter and serves as an East African hub for companies including General Electric and Coca-Cola Co.
Chebukati did not answer his mobile phone when Bloomberg tried to contact him.
The declaration of President Uhuru Kenyatta as the winner of the vote sparked protests and led to clashes between security forces and opposition supporters in which 24 people died, said the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights.
Opposition leader Raila Odinga has demanded sweeping changes at the commission, including the removal of CEO Ezra Chiloba before the rerun takes place. The ruling Jubilee Party has rejected any changes to the commission.
In a September 5 memorandum to Chiloba, Chebukati demanded to know why a username created in his name and without his consent had been used to log onto the electoral authority’s computer system more than a thousand times. He also sought responses on why satellite phones distributed to constituencies for results transmission failed to work, along with the absence of security features on ballot papers and the failure of the IEBC’s electionresults transmission system.
COMMISSIONERS SPLIT
The split among the commissioners is preventing Chebukati from firing staff members complicit in the failed August vote, according to the official. The chairman does not have veto powers and has only two of the at least four commissioners needed to back his decisions, the official said.
The opposition alliance led by Odinga wants a “thorough, independent, transparent, end-toend audit and quality assurance” of systems prior to the vote.
The electoral body will hire an international firm to conduct an independent audit of computer servers.
The audit and a detailed written judgment from the Supreme Court, due this week, could be used to remove staff complicit in the presidential election, the official said.
IEBC commissioners want the audit in order to know whether its servers were hacked, as alleged by the opposition, after the authority failed to comply with a Supreme Court order to open the servers to scrutiny, the official said.
The state of affairs means the commission may need divine intervention to pull Kenya back from the brink of a crisis while some commissioners have taken hard-line positions and may not realise the gravity of the situation, the official said.
“Kenya could still go ahead and hold an election in October, but not necessarily a credible one,” said Emma Gordon, an analyst at Bath, England-based Verisk Maplecroft.