Far-right surge worries Germany

With her centre-right Christian Democratic Union party leading the vote, Angela Merkel is set to remain Germany’s chancellor, for a fourth consecutive term. This comes as no surprise. Her popularity has remained high. While her party captured a lower percentage of votes than in 2013, she was dominant throughout the campaign, while her main opponent, the Social Democrat Martin Schulz, failed to mount a convincing challenge. Just a fifth of voters backed the Social Democrats, and Schulz announced that he would not renew the coalition with Merkel, who will now open talks with the Free Democratic Party (at 10%) and the Greens (at 9%).

Key to Merkel’s longevity is what some observers have called her strategy of “asymmetric demobilisation”: by co-opting many of her mainstream adversaries’ policies, whether on nuclear energy, minimum wage or gay marriage, she has left them little space. What space has opened up is on the extremist, nationalist fringe. By reaching 13%, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has come out stronger than many had anticipated during the campaign.

The AfD surge is worrying. And it is a sign of growing political fragmentation. It introduces into German federal politics an element of toxicity and polarisation that anyone attached to liberal democracy can only be concerned about. It rose from being a fringe group in 2013 to now becoming a key opposition force, with as many as 80 seats. As part of the parliament, the AfD will benefit from speaking time, state funds and more regular TV exposure — an appalling prospect.

Germany is not swerving towards the extremes, even as a protest vote has now clearly emerged. If anything, this election has shown how solidly the country’s political centre ground can hold. German stability is good news for Europe, and for liberal democracy at large. London, September 24.