STREET DOGS

Market insights from the Wells Fargo Investment Institute Global Investment Strategy team – September 18 2017:

Gradually rising but benign inflation should produce small interest rate increases, while we expect moderate global economic growth to generate low to mid single-digit total returns from current levels for most equity asset classes. The synchronised global recovery that took hold in 2017 should gain in 2018, though restrained by continuing global headwinds from high debt, slow labour recoveries overseas and political uncertainties.

We believe that excess global commodity supply will hold key commodity prices within their 2017 ranges. We also expect that earnings gains will fuel moderately higher US and international equity markets.

The US economic cycle is likely in the final third of its run, while the international expansion probably is in its first third. With these cycles at late and early stages, global growth still may face headwinds from various factors, especially the ... uncertain geopolitical landscape expected to await investors in 2018.

Among the largest emerging economies (China, Russia and Brazil), less stimulative monetary policy and low but stable commodity prices should sustain the trend towards easing inflation. Political uncertainty poses the primary risk to our economic forecasts. US tax reform could materialise in the first few months of 2018. In that case, sentiment, economic growth and inflation could improve more than we forecast.

Our year-end 2018 target range for gold is $1,150-$1,250 per ounce, the same as in 2017. We believe that gold’s 2017 rally will start to fade as we begin 2018, but there is always the chance that geopolitical risks worldwide could keep gold prices higher for longer.