Drilling for data, not gas

Reports suggesting there are “only 13-trillion cubic feet (tcf)” of gas in the Karoo need some empirical context (Tests reveal less Karoo shale gas than expected, September 28).

The whole point of early drilling is to drill for data, not gas. With sound data we can have a meaningful basis for informed discussions and decisions, not asymmetrical and sometimes emotional ones. What we have here is just one empirically relevant data set (the 13tcf case) and other modelled possibilities like the original 390tcf “gas in place”. It is always the case that “gas in place” numbers are much higher than what is, in fact, technically recoverable.

Two holes were drilled under the moniker Karin (Karoo Research Initiative), intentionally outside the targeted licence areas and at the edges of the basin, which would likely suggest low readings. The result is exactly as expected.

The core drills gave new core information for largely post-graduate geoscience students to study and also tested whether South African drillers could drill safely and responsibly. The picture in Business Day of the Tankwa site shows how well managed and clean a responsibly drilled site can be. Besides the training and skill element, the funded (and open access to the academics) exercise unearthed several South African suppliers that could be used if the industry proceeds.

It is one data set showing what was largely expected, not an analogue for the entire shale basin. On the other hand, should 13tcf be correct, and if it is recoverable and viable, that would be very significant for SA’s economy — the PetroSA offshore gas fields have yielded some 1tcf and have fuelled the Mossel Bay refinery for over two decades.

What SA needs is a fact-led decision making process, and the latest studies have provided a framework for this. Any attempt at predicting the recoverable volumes prior to drilling exploration wells in the “meat” of the most viable shale prospects at logical depths smacks of the dark arts of fortune-telling.

Niall Kramer

CEO, SA Oil & Gas Alliance