Wanted: virtuous, strong and united leadership
How many combinations of 33%, 20.5%, 12.6%, 9.2% and 8.9% can you come up with that get over that magic 50% required for control? Quite a few, if you do the sums. Not that many if you’re trying to get together a cohesive coalition government, maybe only one.
This is the challenge facing Angela Merkel after her “win, but …” result in the German elections. She won a fourth term, but with a smaller percentage of the vote.
Technically, but not practically, parties other than CDU/CSU (33% of the vote) could come together to form a majority, but they’re simply too far apart ideologically and any such result would be too fragile and fractious to govern.
The extremists on either side will be excluded from Merkel’s new government, but there can be no doubt that the Bundestag is going to be a noisier place as the AfD (12.6%) and Die Linke (9.2%) have their say. We’ve already become used to such disruptive parliamentary debates here.
The worst consequence of adversarial coalition government is what I might describe as lowest common denominator outcomes. We’ve seen signs of that in Germany, the US and here, where nationalism and outright racism become platforms for division, hatred and violence.
Increasingly, centrist policy parties, and for that matter any ruling parties, are under attack. The status quo has always been the easiest to criticise, but the strength and popularity of the critics is now beyond being ignored.
Globalisation and universal, immediate access to information (and opinion) through social media have certainly played a role. All of the previously complacent groups of like-minded but politically passive people are now gathering to fight the comfortable incumbents.
The consequences of political stances (on issues like migration) have had an effect on the daily lives, social circumstances and livelihoods of the local national population. Governance by coalition is complicated, with a high risk of stalemates and the practical certainty that all decisions will be compromises.
Compromises are often a good thing. In fact, most enduring relationships are often characterised by the willingness of all parties to find common ground. While this may be okay for functionality, it is not okay for change, transformation or policy formulation. If the only common cause within government is to reach consensus in order to “get things done”, that is hardly a foundation for progress. Change is difficult to accept, let alone implement and when there is a compelling case for change, strong leadership must prevail over internal point-scoring.
On the other side of the coalition spectrum, some world leaders are looking to entrench and expand their influence and tenure in order to ensure (enforce?) the implementation of policy. If such policies are founded in common cause and seen as virtuous by the overwhelming majority of the population, then a chosen leader can actually get it done.
Shinzo Abe called for a snap election in Tokyo last week. Albeit that he faces new (and strong) opposition from Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, he wants a mandate for economic stimulus to finally catapult Japan out of deflation (and, of course, fight North Korea). Let’s hope he gets it.
Xi Jinping is likewise looking to further strengthen his position of power in China at the next party congress. His agenda goes beyond domestic issues, like the reform of state enterprises, into international debates on how to deal with, for instance, US President Donald Trump’s “local is the only lekker” policies. Of course, seeking to strengthen a position when you already have control doesn’t always work out — ask Theresa May.
Back home, we’re seeing political coalitions emerge as the new order. Given our divided past and continuing economic inequality, this should come as no surprise. Maybe we just have to defeat our common threats before we can reach our common cause?
We have already seen these unlikely alliances in action at municipal level.
If this is a simply a phase we have to work through, then so be it.
It may be a necessary process, but I hope we can make up our collective minds as soon as possible.
The last thing we need now is further delays in economic policy implementation because of in-fighting and stalemates.
What we need instead is common cause and a united, powerful, virtuous leadership to plot a course through the rough waters we’re in, towards the calm sea of shared economic prosperity we all voted for.