So much choice for ANC, so little certainty

The ANC’s 54th national conference is two-and-a-half months away. Things are quite uncertain, dire even, given the rifts and court battles in key provinces, violence and disruption of critical meetings, political killings and the looming danger of President Jacob Zuma remaining on as party president beyond December due to a collapsed conference or one challenged in court.

These things are whispered about beneath tightly knotted eyebrows and downturned lips. Deciding who to trust will be quite tricky. The camp aligned to Zuma appears to have fractured considerably since 2015.

The recall of Nhlanhla Nene, the Constitutional Court judgment on Nkandla, the Guptas and state capture, and the combined effect of these elements on the ANC’s 2016 electoral support have contributed to this. The 2012 Zuma camp has split into three — those aligned to ANC deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa; to former KwaZulu-Natal chairman Zweli Mkhize and his Mpumalanga counterpart, David Mabuza; and a third group including the chairmen of the Free State and the North West, as well as strong Zuma backers in the ANC’s Women’s League and Youth League.

The chairmen of the Free State, Mpumalanga and North West became a powerful bloc known as the premier league after 2012, the remnants of a forum of the nine ANC chairmen in the run-up to that conference brought together largely by Gauteng chairman Paul Mashatile and then KwaZulu-Natal chairman Mkhize. Mabuza appears to have split from this group and is said to favour Mkhize for the top spot and would like a position among the officials.

Mabuza, Mashatile and Mkhize appear to be coming together to form the “unity” ticket. But how did the rift between Mabuza and his former counterparts occur, and has he genuinely jumped off the Zuma bandwagon?

Mabuza has long been uncomfortable about the influence of the Gupta family and is said to have warned his Free State counterpart, Ace Magashule, about them.

Magashule is also now reported to have toned down his support for Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. It’s an odd move for Magashule, whose leadership in the Free State, and his own family, have been closely involved with the Guptas.

In each province an incarnation of the “unity ticket” is taking shape. This week, according to branch leaders in Gauteng, the provincial leadership explained the nomination process, told branches that the leadership’s preference is for Ramaphosa to be the next president, and provided them with a list of just fewer than 10 names to choose from to fill the rest of the top six, nine or 10 posts, depending on whether the constitutional amendment to increase the top structure is agreed to. These names include Lindiwe Sisulu, Dlamini-Zuma, Mabuza, Mashatile, Gwede Mantashe, Febe Potgieter-Gqubule, Senzo Mchunu and Jessie Duarte.

At least three provinces have voiced their preference for Ramaphosa.

Dlamini-Zuma’s campaign is floundering — she does not appear to be gaining traction among branches. In the Eastern Cape’s bloody elective conference at the weekend, the winning candidate was former secretary Oscar Mabuyane, a Ramaphosa backer. He was up against former chairman Phumulo Masualle, who lost the elective race and walked out of the hall with about 700 delegates.

The assumption was that Masualle backed Dlamini-Zuma, but this was not the case. He had made a pact with Dlamini-Zuma backers in the province to ensure that he was returned to his post as chairman. This did not mean he would have backed her in the national race in December. So the 700 delegates who left the conference prematurely may not have backed Mabuyane, but that did not mean they would not back Ramaphosa.

Another complication for Dlamini-Zuma is the fate of her strongest backers, the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal under Sihle Zikalala, whose 2015 election was overturned by the court in September.

It has become clear over the ANC NEC’s handling of the KwaZulu-Natal matter that the structure is at best fatigued, at worst dead.

Zuma ally Zikalala got his way and the ruling is to be appealed against, which has potentially disastrous consequences for the party and the national conference.

Losing the appeal, the judgment on which may be handed down only after the national conference in December, would call the legitimacy of the gathering into question.

As nominations firm up towards December, uncertainty will mount, and the ANC’s handling of issues such as KwaZulu-Natal and court challenges in other provinces will determine its fate.

MASAULLE HAD MADE A PACT WITH DLAMINI-ZUMA BACKERS IN THE PROVINCE TO ENSURE THAT HE WAS RETURNED TO HIS POST