Presidential primaries would give voters more say

There is something very strange about a full-blooded presidential election campaign in which the candidates battle for the support of a public that cannot vote.

For the first time since 1994, the contest for the ANC presidency is happening in public. Candidates do all the things we expect in elections. They address meetings, woo interest groups, issue statements and give interviews. One, Zweli Mkhize, has a campaign video circulating on social media. Reporters and commentators pronounce on the strength and weaknesses of the contenders, and polling firms conduct surveys of candidates’ support. We seem to be in the midst of one of those contests for the people’s support that are the essence of democracy. In reality, the spectacle is weird — this may be the only election on earth in which the candidates are campaigning for the support of people who cannot vote.

The ANC president is elected not by the 26-million plus South Africans who are registered to vote but by just over 5,000 people who will vote at the ANC conference (if there is one). That’s 0.0002% of the electorate and 0.0004% of the 11.4-million people who voted for the ANC in 2014.

In theory, the delegates vote on the instructions of ANC members. We don’t know how many there are at the moment, but if we are generous and assume 1.5-million, about 6% of all voters, or 13% of ANC voters, will supposedly play a role in the decision.

That is not much, but it is also highly unlikely that most ANC members take part in the branch meetings where candidates and voting delegates are chosen. The ANC has its doubts: it is considering allowing members, not branches, to elect leaders.

In theory, the fact that ANC leaders are elected by a tiny fraction of voters is not a problem for citizens: if they don’t like the leaders who are chosen, they can vote against the ANC. But in practice, people are being denied a choice. Voters may be drawn to a party but not the leaders it chooses. If so, they must either not vote for the party they like or vote for leaders they dislike — either way, they will not get what they want. The enthusiasm that has greeted the first public ANC election, despite the fact that it is largely phoney, shows that many voters want a say in who leads parties.

A popular solution is direct election of the president by voters. But that would solve nothing: party candidates would still be chosen by a small group of insiders and voters would have no greater say. The problem is that voters do not choose their party’s candidate and the solution is to make sure they do.

The solution the ANC is considering — direct voting by members — would be an improvement but would still exclude the 90% or so of voters who are not members of the party they support and so have no say in who leads it. The way to give everyone who wants one a say in leadership elections is to introduce primaries: voters who register as supporters of a party would vote in its leadership elections.

The ANC is resisting this change, the latest reason being that US primaries produce demagogues. This blames primaries for other ills in US politics: the power of big money and the fact that the candidate with the most votes does not necessarily win.

The real reason for the resistance may be the fear of open contest, which ensured that previous ANC elections were not fought in public. Reality has now forced ANC leaders to accept elections contested in public. The logical next step is to allow the public a vote in the contest.