Democracy breaks down amid Kenyan poll shambles
The Kenyan Supreme Court’s historic decision to annul presidential elections sent a frisson through much of the continent. From Johannesburg to Lagos, democrats celebrated a decision that seemed to strike a blow for institutional independence and to send a signal to incumbents that elections had to be free from any hint of tampering.
There were certainly a few hints of that in Kenya, where electoral forms disappeared, transmission of results broke down and, a week before polling, the man in charge of the electoral IT system was found tortured and killed.
The Supreme Court was concerned enough to declare the August poll null and void and to order a rerun. Not only had the judiciary faced down the executive, the executive, in the form of President Uhuru Kenyatta, grudgingly accepted its verdict, even though it had deprived him of a second term. Kenyans from both sides of the political divide celebrated what many saw as a deepening of democracy.
One elated commentator said Britain, where Supreme Court judges had been branded “enemies of the people” for ruling that the Brexit vote had to be ratified by parliament, could learn a thing or two from Kenyans.
If the gloss on the Supreme Court ruling was mostly positive then, a month later, much of that gloss has gone. Kenya is stuck in political limbo. Two things have happened to undermine the hope that constitutionalism will triumph.
Raila Odinga is refusing to participate in the electoral rerun that is due to take place on October 26.
That leaves Kenyatta as the sole serious contender. If he wins, opposed by only a clutch of no-hopers, it will be a hollow finale to what was supposed to be a battle for the soul of democracy.
On the face of it, Odinga’s decision not to run looks puzzling. Why go to all the bother of challenging the August election and forcing a rerun, and then refuse to stand? Yet his reasoning turns out to have some rationale.
None of the reforms to the electoral process that Odinga has demanded have been granted. The same electoral commission will be in charge in October. This week, one commission official fled to the US for her life, saying the electoral board is so partisan it cannot hold a credible poll.
Apart from her, the same people Odinga accused of sabotaging the first vote will preside over the second, employing the same electoral register, the same procedures and the same — evidently flawed — electronic tallying system. You do not have to be Einstein to expect the result to be the same, too.
If Odinga is raining on the democratic parade, so is Kenyatta. He has accused his opponent of being a sore loser. (This is the fourth presidential contest in which Odinga has been declared the loser, though not necessarily the fourth that he has lost.) Worse, after agreeing to abide by the Supreme Court decision, the president has called the judges “thugs” and has vowed to “fix” the judiciary if he wins a second term. He has lost no time in bringing the court to heel, rushing through an amendment to the electoral law preventing the Supreme Court from annulling a poll unless irregularities have a material effect on the result.
Many of Odinga’s supporters have taken to the streets. A few have lost their lives as a result, shot by police.
So convinced are some people that they cannot get justice at the ballot box, there is wild talk about setting up a breakaway republic. Until now, though, the idea of secession has not gained much traction despite Kenya’s complex ethnic mix.
For millions of Kenyans who thought that elections were about candidates and votes, it is not an edifying process to watch.