Omens abound that Russia may soon be pulling the strings in SA
• Moscow’s shenanigans point to interference in state to secure backhand nuclear deals
The next few weeks will tell us whether Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba’s minibudget was enough to keep the ratings agency wolves from the door, but I’m beginning to believe more and more that it does not matter.
Don’t get me wrong, a ratings downgrade would make life for all South Africans — especially the government — a good deal more expensive and unpleasant, but there are bigger monsters in the closet that we should be worried about.
The scariest of these is not the Guptas or even President Jacob Zuma but the very real possibility of prolonged and growing Russian interference in our domestic affairs. The rumours that David Mahlobo, was appointed energy minister purely so that he would push through the nuclear deal are convincing, mainly because they are perfect for the political environment, in which most folk are inclined to believe any story in which Zuma is the villain.
As much as there is often an element of truth in these rumours, it is never quite as straightforward as it seems.
Let me start by saying that Zuma is indeed a villain and Mahlobo was not put in the energy ministry because of his prowess in all things energy.
Unfortunately for him, like the two energy ministers who came before him, there is no silver bullet that will make the nuclear deal happen.
For starters, there is no legal way it can be passed before the ANC elective conference in December. Before the Department of Energy can even start the tender process and issue a request for proposals, it must release the eagerly awaited and much-delayed updated Integrated Energy Plan and Integrated Resource Plan. Even then, it is unclear whether thesee plans will indicate a need for new nuclear power in the energy mix, let alone that we can afford it.
He could try push through a special appropriation bill, like Gigaba tried to do to bail out South African Airways earlier this month, but to the best of my knowledge there is no allowance for emergency nuclear procurement in the Public Finance Management Act. In short, there simply isn’t enough time to go through the required processes, and any attempt at an illegal process will either be challenged in court or turned down by Parliament long before it even gets that far.
What this means is that assuming Zuma has made a secret agreement to buy nuclear power stations from the Russians, they will have to wait until at least 2018 to see the fruit of their labour. The result is that the Russians have a strong interest in the elective conference in December, and most probably in the national election in 2019. This should send a shiver down your spine.
To give you a brief reminder, Putin and his associates have been implicated in political interference in the 2016 US elections, specifically around the hacking of e-mails and creation and dissemination of fake news that undermined the Clinton campaign. I don’t think Clinton lost because of the Russians but they certainly muddied the waters sufficiently to make the Trump victory more likely.
Investigations are still under way, but it is clear enough already that the Russian government actively tried to influence the outcome of the election. A report by a group of concerned British MPs released earlier this year came to a similar conclusion: the Russian government was probably involved in a variety of cyber attacks used to influence the outcome of the vote. They concluded that Russian-linked groups were also used to provide media air cover in the form of fake news to shift public opinion and change the direction of the vote.
These findings followed repeated claims that Russia had also been involved in trying to influence the French presidential elections.
None of this really surprises me. The idea that foreign interference in key national or political events is somehow something new is complete nonsense. Foreign affairs has always been a dirty business when you scratch below the surface, but advancements in technology have made it easier for outsiders to infiltrate local communities and sway public opinion. What these recent “cyber attacks” — for want of better words — do tell us is that the Russian government is prepared to use them to get its geopolitical way, and also experienced enough to make sure there is nothing that anyone can really do about it.
So where does this leave Zuma, Mahlobo and the rest of SA? Well, if you thought Bell Pottinger was bad, you haven’t seen anything yet. If the Russians really have bought our country’s balance sheet for a few billion rand in a Bermuda bank account, they are going to make sure the seller produces the goods. Given that the time is up for a legal nuclear procurement process before December, this means that Zuma and the Russians have to make sure that whoever succeeds him will do his bidding. This means we can expect a lot more foreign influence in our media, social media, and in the bank accounts of proZuma and pro-Dlamini-Zuma ANC cadres.
Considering what Bell Pottinger’s campaign of fake news and social media bots did to the social fabric of our country, it is almost too awful to consider what another campaign aimed at sowing racial, class and political division in SA will look like.
Add to this that with every passing month that Zuma and his cronies are in power, money that should have been spent on education, housing, healthcare and social support is being diverted to benefit corrupt individuals, and it makes me feel physically sick.
So, as much as we may hope that the mini-budget and the finance minister are the key to economic and political stability over the next two to three years, they are actually small cogs in a much bigger machine that really doesn’t care what happens to ordinary South Africans so long as the necessary deals get done.
THE RUSSIANS HAVE A STRONG INTEREST IN THE ELECTIVE CONFERENCE IN DECEMBER ...