Wales match will trumpet the end of Coetzee’s tenure
Wales in Cardiff will bring an end to Allister Coetzee’s inglorious two-year tenure as Springbok coach.
It is appropriate that the final rites on Coetzee will be delivered in an arena that could easily double as rugby’s cathedral. If the Millennium Stadium is the game’s rugby place of worship then the prayers of most South African rugby supporters will finally be answered and we won’t see Coetzee with the Boks again.
Coetzee’s two-year tenure has largely been a mess, from the infamous home defeat to a 14-man Ireland in Cape Town in his first Test in charge, to his team conceding 57 points in successive Tests to the All Blacks, to the record 38-3 defeat against Ireland in Dublin.
There was the other historic low of losing to Italy a year ago in Florence and, fortunately, the Italians went into free fall after their 15 minutes of fame and subsequently haven’t put together 15 minutes of anything ever since.
The Italians, in losing 35-6 to the Springboks in 2017, were as awful as they have been at any stage in the past 12 months.
Ranked 13th in the world, they had lost 10 of 11 Tests since beating the Springboks in Florence. The only success was at home against Fiji — they are ranked lower than Italy.
The Boks won comfortably, but to applaud the victory is to applaud them for getting out of bed to train. The win, by 20-plus points, was a given.
Wales will be a different challenge in Cardiff but the men in red certainly don’t represent the game’s Everest. They, like the Springboks, are consistent only for their inconsistency and they too are a team who seldom deliver on the hype.
The Welsh talent exceeds anything Italy could present as a collective and they certainly played their part in a thrilling Test against the All Blacks.
The Welsh were massive in the opening 30 minutes and competitive throughout, but lost 33-18 to an All Blacks team who were colossal defensively and lethal when given the chance to score.
The Springboks don’t have the attacking firepower and defensive mind-set of the New Zealanders. If Wales are strong mentally then it will be a very difficult day in Cardiff.
If Wales play like they did against the All Blacks, they will beat the Springboks.
Regardless of the result, Coetzee’s time is up. He will have had 25 Tests in charge and his winning percentage will end in the 40s. His teams will also never have beaten a team ranked higher than the Boks on match day.
Coetzee’s Boks won four Tests in 12 in 2016 and in 2017, he has won seven in 12. However, four of the seven wins have been against France, who are ranked eighth in the world, have been triumphant in just seven of their last 22 Tests and on Saturday were within a conversion kick of losing for the first time to Japan. The Test, in Narbonne, ended 23-all.
The Boks’ other wins have come against Argentina, who have won three of their past 20 Tests, didn’t win a match in the Rugby Championship and whose only success in the northern hemisphere was to beat Italy. Then there’s the most recent Springbok win against the very same Italy .
It makes any analysis of the Springbok win insignificant because comparing the defeat to Ireland in Dublin to what happened against Italy would be disingenuous.
The purple prose flowed easily for Handré Pollard on social media for his powerful performance against Italy. There has never been the same generosity of prose for Elton Jantjies this season, whose Tests starts have been against the sport’s best.
Pollard, I hope, will find consistency and imposing form in Cardiff and in 2018, because the Boks will be a better team with Pollard strong physically and mentally. But it should take more than 65 commanding minutes against the Italians before Pollard is again the anointed one at No 10.
The Springboks are also a better team when you add a handful of the very best South Africans playing up north.
Duane Vermeulen and Francois Louw are just two examples of how the Boks were strengthened in the past fortnight. Neither will be present in Cardiff and their absence should add to the confirmation of Coetzee’s end as Springbok coach.