Demand for electric buses set to surge

Nearly half the municipal buses around the world will be electric within seven years, with China expected to dominate the global market as it aims to cut urban pollution and support domestic manufacturers.

The total number of electric buses in service is forecast to more than triple, from 386,000 in 2017 to about 1.2-million in 2025, equal to about 47% of the global city bus fleet, according to a report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

“China will lead this market, due to strong domestic support and aggressive city-level targets,” wrote Aleksandra O’Donovan, an analyst for BNEF and author of the study.

By 2025, the report said, the country’s fleet would be 99% battery-powered buses.

Electric buses remain more expensive upfront than those fuelled by diesel or compressed natural gas, but BNEF found that battery-powered buses can offer a lower total cost of ownership when fuel and maintenance expenses are considered.

Projected declines in battery prices will make the upfront costs of some electric models competitive with a diesel version by 2026, according to the study.

Public buses are a key part of the urban transit infrastructure and the fact that they serve routine, fixed routes makes them ideal for electrification. Many cities are increasingly looking at electric buses as a way to reduce local air pollution, and such municipalities as Paris and Amsterdam have set goals to switch to zero-emission buses in the coming years.

Earlier this week, mayors of some of California’s largest cities including Los Angeles and San Jose, urged the state’s environmental regulator to introduce incentives and requirements to spur a shift towards electric buses.

China has set the most aggressive clean-energy busdeployment targets. Warren Buffett-backed BYD, China’s largest seller of electric vehicles, is well positioned to take advantage of this push. In China in 2017, BYD sold 100,183 newenergy vehicles in a category that incudes full electric and hybrids and the company’s buses now operate in 200 cities around the world.