Race is on to get chaotic NEC to make the right decision
The last time the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) discussed President Jacob Zuma’s future, it couldn’t make it over the decision line. The question is whether this was because it did not have a strong enough consensus or because the ANC is just bad at finishing.
In general the party tends not to nail things down, especially when controversial. It is not unusual for opposing groups to continue to interpret decisions and resolutions differently for years after a resolution has been taken, due to the fuzziness of decision-making.
That’s how three weeks ago the Sunday newspapers could chant in unison after the NEC meeting that Zuma was to step down in days, and how ANC deputy secretarygeneral Jessie Duarte could tell us a week later that only six people had proposed that Zuma step down.
What everyone does agree on from the last NEC meeting was that the top six officials were asked to handle the discussion with Zuma on his future. But with the NEC not having taken a resolution, Zuma was on safe ground. When he met the top-six delegation on Sunday night, all he needed to point out was that no ANC structure had asked for his recall.
Now the race is on to have that meeting again, and this time do it properly. The idea is to ensure that Zuma does not deliver the state of the nation speech. Whether there is enough time to get all this done – an NEC meeting; Zuma’s formal resignation; and the election of a new president by 7pm on Thursday — is doubtful, but ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa is trying.
As Zuma has no doubt calculated, pushing the decision through the NEC is not certain either. Having stared them down the last time, he will be hoping to do it again. This is what the countless ANC-aligned people mean when they describe the Ramaphosa grouping as “not having the balls” to remove Zuma. There is a large middle ground in the NEC of people who were formerly Zuma-aligned and who will happily fall in behind Ramaphosa once Zuma is removed. But that is a different thing from wielding the hatchet themselves.
Working against Zuma this time round will be the hardened attitude of the Ramaphosa group. The unity storyline they championed on January 8 has died. Now Ramaphosa, like Zuma, will have to do the staring and insist that NEC members make clear their allegiances.
There have been weakly articulated threats from odd quarters that if Zuma is pushed out the ANC will split. A logo purporting to be that of a new political party – the Federation For Radical Economic Transformation – was circulated a week or two ago. On Monday there was a bizarre confrontation at Luthuli House between supporters of Hands Off Zuma, made up of structures outside the ANC such as Black First, Land First (BLF), and ANC supporters who had come to defend “the ANC”.
In another twist that showed the farcical nature of the Hands Off Zuma protest, it was the ANC supporters who booed new ANC secretarygeneral Ace Magashule when he appeared on the scene. For his part, Magashule praised the discipline of the BLF.
These efforts don’t amount to much. Active ANC members in branches and those who serve as public representatives in provinces and on municipal councils won’t readily follow Zuma or any of his acolytes out of the ANC. Having seen the Congress of the People fail, a split seems improbable.
WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH TIME TO GET ALL THIS DONE – AN NEC MEETING; THE ELECTION OF A NEW PRESIDENT BY 7PM ON THURSDAY — IS DOUBTFUL
These calculations might help to push the NEC fencesitters over the line. If not, it will be back to Parliament, where things are even more complicated and will take much longer to do.
The first problem is that the EFF is ahead of the ANC in the queue in scheduling a motion of no confidence in Zuma, which is due to be debated on February 22, right after the budget. To remove Zuma in an EFF-sponsored motion is not something the ANC will want to do.
This would mean voting in support of Zuma yet again, until they get their own motion in place. The alternative is to wait for the impeachment process, which opposition parties will make sure is a drawn out and humiliating one for the ANC.
Should the NEC not rise to the occasion, the ANC will have to take a lot more pain.