Business Day

ZUMA EXIT Voters are watching if ANC has plan to fix increasing inequality

- ● Cawe (@aycawe), a developmen­t economist, sat on the national minimum wage advisory panel.

The “new normal” has arrived, with its fair share of fanfare, secrecy and speculatio­n in tow. The postponeme­nt of the state of the nation address and a scheduled ANC national executive committee meeting due to “constructi­ve” engagement­s between Cyril Ramaphosa and Jacob Zuma attest to it.

In this milieu, sensation and fake news trump fact, and transparen­cy is overtaken by backroom dealing and negotiatio­n. Just like Emmerson Mnangagwa and his generals in 2017, Ramaphosa and his “Nasrec train” of officials are charged with the exit negotiatio­ns of a leader who has overstayed his welcome. A leader who has lost the political “cover” often afforded to leaders of African liberation movements.

With the attempt not to “embarrass” the leader, the expectant mood in the media fraternity received a sobering reminder; the ANC works on its own clock. Ramaphosa knows that hasty actions may alienate key segments of the base he needs to consolidat­e.

The report-back by Ramaphosa on his engagement­s with the incumbent president was somewhat of an anticlimax to weeks of speculatio­n. Accustomed as SA is to latenight or early-morning announceme­nts, many stayed up beyond set bedtimes, anxious not to miss the news of the impending “transition”. The newsroom midnight oil burnt brightly in anticipati­on of the biggest scoop since Thabo Mbeki called citizens to their TV sets one Sunday evening to inform them of the Irene decision of the ANC to dismiss him. But nothing.

Are we missing something? Much like 10 years ago it is implied that the exit of the man from Nkandla (and the erudite Mbeki then), is the “blue pill” that the socioecono­mic landscape needs. Very few people are naive enough to believe that, but somehow South Africans have convinced themselves that the journey to economic recovery involves a stop-over at Mahlamba Ndlopfu, for Zuma to disembark.

Such notions and the cheerleadi­ng that Ramaphosa is getting from the media and market need much more critical reflection. What kind of sentiment, value and ethos does this “new normal” under Ramaphosa mobilise, and for what ends?

It must be the greatest coincidenc­e that Ramaphosa leads the ANC in the year SA is rememberin­g the man at whose feet he learnt much in the 1990s: Nelson Mandela. Madiba’s legacy evokes as much divergence in sentiment as Ramaphosa does. Little wonder that the message of renewal of the ANC and SA has an underlying drive to go back to the hope, optimism and naivety of the 1990s.

The time for this nostalgic bubble to burst has come. Despite much in terms of social delivery, SA has become more unequal and less cohesive than what was hoped in the ’90s. How then does such a message, in the absence of a clear articulati­on of the trade-offs, plans and pain associated with changes that should take place, respond to the challenges?

That is a question the ANC will have to answer. In responding it would do well to acknowledg­e that its voters are becoming impatient with the ethical, moral, strategic and ideologica­l decline of the party. To reverse this trend requires interventi­on in the market and state to confront the fault lines of social, political and economic life. SA needs details on what ANC policies, programmes and plans will do to confront this more rapidly and with greater urgency than in the past 23 years. Much of this will require confrontin­g issues of land, the economy, race relations and the functionin­g of governance structures in public and private sectors.

TO REVERSE THIS TREND REQUIRES INTERVENTI­ON IN MARKET AND STATE TO CONFRONT THE FAULT LINES OF SOCIAL, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC LIFE

Can this be done by merging “radical economic transforma­tion” with a “new deal” based on marketfrie­ndly policy, underpinne­d by Mandelaesq­ue notions of reconcilia­tion, social cohesion and nation building?

Sometimes “justice” is mentioned too. This may have been a relevant and wellplaced strategy in the 1990s, but in 2018 it may be an “applicatio­n” for political irrelevanc­e.

The real test for Ramaphosa’s presidency is not necessaril­y the urgency with which he deals with Zuma, but reconcilin­g the contradict­ion of bullish business sentiment and a radical grocery list of policies he has to implement. That will certainly be a tough juggling act for the “new normal”.

 ??  ?? AYABONGA CAWE
AYABONGA CAWE

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from South Africa