Western Cape’s prospects depend on good winter rain

The west coast of SA, which is well known for good wines and winter grains, has been saddled with below-normal winter rainfall for the past three years. The impact of this is clear from the Western Cape’s dwindling agricultural output.

In 2017 the province’s winter wheat production declined by 47% from the previous year, easing to 586,800 tonnes. Because of the province’s large share in national wheat production, the aforementioned decline translated into a 20% reduction in national wheat production to 1.52-million tonnes. This led to a notable increase in wheat imports.

The South African supply and demand estimates committee forecasts wheat imports for the 2017-18 marketing year at 1.93-million tonnes. This is a second-largest import volume on record, in data dating back to 1936-37. So far the country has imported about 60% of the seasonal import forecast, and the rest should reach our shores between now and the end of September (the end of the marketing year).

Other winter crops such as barley and canola, which are also produced mainly in the Western Cape, declined by 13% and 11% from the previous year to 307,064 tonnes and 93,468 tonnes, respectively, in 2017.

In a drought policy brief released in February, the Western Cape government and Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy estimated that production of wine grapes, table grapes, pome fruit and stone fruit could decline by 20%, 18%, 9% and 8%, respectively, in the 2017-18 season. This will, of course, constrain the province’s agricultural economic growth and labour market participation.

For winter grain farmers, planting time for the new season crop is fast approaching. Fortunately, this year promises some improvements as the rainy season, which starts at the end of this month, could be more effective than the previous ones. In its recent Seasonal Climate Watch, the South African Weather Service indicated that between April and June parts of the southwestern Cape regions of the country could receive abovenormal rainfall.

This is of course just what the Western Cape’s agricultural sector needs. This rainfall will be critical for improving soil moisture content ahead of planting. Already, some analysts — such as the US department of agriculture — forecast SA’s 2018-19 wheat production at 1.65-million tonnes, up by 8% from the previous season.

The department’s optimism is based on expectations of higher yields supported by favourable weather conditions. The yields are forecast at 3.4tonnes per hectare, up by 10% from the previous season. The department expects these higher yields to offset a reduced area planting of 480,000ha, down by 2% year on year.

The national crop estimates committee will release its first production estimate for winter wheat at the end of August. However, we will get an indication of the prospects of the 2018-19 winter crop production at the end of this month when the committee releases data on farmers’ intentions to plant. Contrary to the US agriculture department, the national crop estimates committee’s forecast could show an improvement in the area plantings from last year as sentiment is fairly positive among farmers. Grain SA’s Western Cape representative, Toit Wessels, expressed some optimism earlier this week, underpinned by the hope that the forecast rainfall for the coming month will materialise.

While the aforementioned developments are welcome, the Western Cape’s agricultural economy will remain lacklustre this year due to the decline in the wine and other horticultural industries. The dial could perhaps turn positive if weather conditions improve in the coming winter rainfall seasons.

Sihlobo is head of agribusiness research at the Agricultural Business Chamber.