Supra axing will need skill
• How Ramaphosa handles this will show leadership
North West Premier Supra Mahumapelo has proved to be a consummate political survivor.
But Mahumapelo’s association with, and mimicking of, the politics of former president Jacob Zuma may prove to be his undoing.
The leadership of the ANC in the North West under Mahumapelo, which backed Thabo Mbeki, was disbanded by the Zuma administration in 2009, when Mahumapelo was the provincial secretary.
In 2011, Mahumapelo was elected provincial chairman and became premier in 2014.
Since then, his political influence — for a leader at the helm of one of the ANC’s numerically smaller provinces — rose dramatically.
It was his candidate, Des van Rooyen, who was selected by Zuma and the Gupta family in their brazen attempt at a heist of the National Treasury at the end of 2015.
Then, it was Mahumapelo who moved to ensure disgraced former Eskom boss Brian Molefe became an MP. Molefe’s name was put forward by the North West, but it later emerged that he, in fact, was a branch member of the ANC in Centurion, Gauteng.
This was part of the second attempt to gain control of the Treasury — Molefe was Zuma’s first choice to replace Pravin Gordhan in early 2017, but Zuma was thwarted by the ANC’s top six at the time.
Zuma settled on Malusi Gigaba instead.
Zuma visited the North West in March, when rumblings in ANC structures and among members against Mahumapelo intensified, the Sowetan reported. On the day of that visit, protests erupted in Mahumapelo’s support.
The Sunday Times report of a R1.5m gift of cattle by Mahumapelo to Zuma, using taxpayers’ money, may prove to be the tip of the iceberg.
There are allegations in political circles that an investigation into the mobile clinic contract handed to the Gupta family could also implicate Zuma.
It was Mahumapelo who mooted a third term for Zuma to rid the ANC of “two centres of power”, as well as publicly — and proudly — supported the Gupta family.
In a state of the province address, Mahumapelo lauded the family for their Sun City wedding, saying it contributed to “economic development”.
It was later revealed by amaBhungane that taxpayers had footed the bill for that extravagant wedding.
The stakes are high for Mahumapelo, and this explains why he will dig in his heels, even as his province burns.
This high-stakes game is going to make President Cyril Ramaphosa’s task of resolving the crisis in the province an arduous one.
First, not all the parties pushing against Mahumapelo are doing so for altruistic reasons, both inside the ANC and among business lobby groups. This is also about the contestation for access to resources, which Mahumapelo controls as premier.
This is about breaking his patronage network, to replace it with another.
This is a reality Ramaphosa will have to navigate carefully, particularly in a province with huge service-delivery demands and which has been set back by corruption and years of neglect.
Second, the potential for violence by Mahumapelo’s backers should he be removed, as reported on in City Press, is also real. The situation is akin to the protests witnessed in Tshwane ahead of the 2016 local government elections after Kgosientso “Sputla” Ramokgopa was not named as the ANC’s mayoral candidate. Beneficiaries of his patronage network were mobilised to buck against the move.
There remains a looming motion of no confidence in Mahumapelo in about four weeks. It is likely the courts will permit a secret ballot.
Failure by Ramaphosa to act now could lead to ANC MPLs taking matters into their own hands by voting with the opposition in the North West.
The ANC’s national executive committee will be the final arbiter.
Mahumapelo says he is being targeted because he supported Nkosazana DlaminiZuma’s candidacy, and attempts to remove him constitute a purge — this represents another complication for Ramaphosa.
Any action by Ramaphosa will feed into this narrative, so he should do the right thing anyway. It is an argument that can easily be put aside once the scale of the damage wrought to the North West under Mahumapelo emerges.
His exit will deal a blow to Zuma’s attempts to claw his way back to political relevance.