De Lille removal ‘threatens DA’s brand in Cape Town’
• Unchartered waters for party, with former Cape Town mayor De Lille out and Zille in her last term as premier
The implosion of the marriage of convenience between Patricia de Lille’s Independent Democrats (ID) and the DA was a long time coming because the two are not cut from the same philosophical cloth.
This is political analyst Daniel Silke’s assessment of the rift between De Lille and the DA, which culminated in an announcement on Tuesday by the party that it had rescinded De Lille’s membership.
The long-running fight between De Lille and the DA would damage the party’s brand in Cape Town, which was seen as a “crown jewel”.
“If this were another metro, it [the fighting] would not have been seen as symbolically important,” Silke said.
Deputy chairwoman of the DA’s federal council Natasha Mazzone said: “It is no secret that the DA has suffered … damage because of this issue due to the lack of information presented to our voters.”
The DA’s decision was based on an interview De Lille gave to 702, during which she said she would leave the party after clearing her name.
Some ID members were expected to leave the DA as a result of De Lille’s removal.
De Lille’s deputy mayor, Ian Neilson, will take over in Cape Town in the interim.
De Lille said on Tuesday at a media briefing following the DA’s decision she would petition the courts to interdict city manager Lungelo Mbandazayo from declaring a vacancy.
She cited her decision to push for transformation in the City of Cape Town as the reason for her removal.
The ANC, which is the official opposition in the City of Cape Town, said it would hold amedia briefing on Wednesday to address the implications of the DA’s decision on the running of the city.
DA federal council chairman James Selfe said its constitution provided that a member ceased to be a member when he or she publicly declared his or her intention to resign.
De Lille’s ID merged with the DA at a time when the DA was seeking to consolidate its support in Cape Town and the Western Cape. The ID still enjoys significant support in the Western Cape, which might dent the DA’s electoral performance in the province come the 2019 general election.
In her court application, De Lille cites the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), the Cape Town city manager and the DA as respondents. She said she remained mayor, pending the conclusion of the court processes. “I am going back to my office this afternoon … I am going to have a meeting with the deputy mayor and the city manager.”
Neilson disagreed, saying the committee appointed by De Lille had been dissolved with immediate effect.
In terms of the Municipal Structures Act, when the mayoral post is vacant, the deputy mayor automatically holds all mayoral authority until such time when a new executive mayor is elected by council.
“As it stands‚ at this moment‚ only the speaker [Dirk Smit] and I are political authorities in the City of Cape Town‚” Neilson said.
De Lille had been serving on a DA ticket, as residents voted directly for the party during the municipal elections — not her.
Neilson said Mbandazayo had informed the IEC about the vacancy in the council. “We await due process to unfold and we will communicate further in due course.”
The challenge for the DA now was to find a suitable candidate with a similar appeal to De Lille’s to attract voters. Also, the DA had to address division in the city to restore voter confidence, Silke said.
As it prepares for a tough election battle next year, a perfect storm is moving over the DA. Its contradictions over racial identity are sharpening; the ham-fisted handling of a very public battle with former Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille; its discord over diversity and quotas; the water crisis; and a new ANC leadership present the party with a tempest of issues.
Deputy federal chairwoman Natasha Mazzone is frank about the challenge the De Lille matter poses for the party.
She admits that the DA’s fight with the popular former mayor poses a “reputational risk”, particularly among voters in the Western Cape.
She adds, however, that the DA is up to the task of regaining lost ground.
There is a widespread perception that black leaders in the DA are dispensable at the whim of an “old guard” in the party — a bloc that has been immovable in its approach towards politics, even in SA’s dynamic and everchanging political environment.
Former DA parliamentary leader Lindiwe Mazibuko’s departure was vastly different on the surface to the unceremonious dumping of De Lille, but in politics perception is critical.
De Lille did what the DA needed her to do when it needed her to do it — she helped elevate the party’s support in Cape Town to a two-thirds majority. But if her comments on Tuesday are anything to go by, her usefulness came at too high a price.
She claims that her woes began in 2014 when she presented a document on transforming the spatial landscape of the City of Cape Town. She says her agenda would have done away with apartheid spatial planning in the city and would have begun to develop it as a truly inclusive place to live.
However, 70% of her caucus recently rejected her leadership, which raises the question: if you cannot hold onto the support of members of your own party, can you hope to win the support of other parties?
Perhaps the 30% of the caucus that had voted in her favour, and the constituencies represented by these councillors, will help to erode the DA’s support in the Western Cape next year.
DA leader Mmusi Maimane, who had in the past fought for De Lille, says that a transformation agenda is part of DA policy, which he outlined in the party’s election manifesto.
However, the facts show that there is a real pushback against a truly transformative agenda in the DA, and the woke South African electorate can see right through it. Insiders say it is not only black faces that are needed in the DA, but a truly transformative agenda, which is increasingly appearing to be at odds with those in the party who claim to have a “liberal agenda”.
The backlash against Maimane over his Freedom Day white privilege comments, the fact that the DA has to endlessly debate the idea of diversity and the makeup of its top leadership speak volumes about the party’s outlook. This is a fine time to while away time in search of ideological purity — the country is at a crossroads.
The DA recently won the crown jewel municipalities — Joburg and Tshwane — and runs Cape Town, yet it appears that its battle against De Lille takes precedence over winning more votes next year.
Jacob Zuma has been removed as president. The ANC has President Cyril Ramaphosa, who simply has to swagger along a beachfront promenade in Cape Town to send traditional DA voters into a swoon.
While some political analysts say that the DA has a strong grip on the heart and soul of the Western Cape electorate, particularly its traditional white and coloured base, they also acknowledge that while this may tide the party over in that province, the party’s action against De Lille will alienate the majority of voters in Gauteng, its next desired electoral conquest.
Paul Berkowitz, among the foremost analysts on electoral politics, says he has not yet run the numbers on the fall-out in the Western Cape over De Lille.
His view, however, is that it will lead to an erosion of the party’s support in the province to a degree.
Insiders in the DA in Gauteng indicate that while the impact of her removal may not be farreaching in the Western Cape, among coloured communities in Gauteng the De Lille matter is having an impact.
Maimane and Mazzone say that by-elections in the Western Cape show that the DA’s support remains strong. They say it may erode slightly in 2019 but not enough to lose the province.
ONE PROVINCE
However, the Western Cape is one of nine provinces, and one that the DA has already secured.
A slight erosion in its support will not have a negligible effect on the elections next year, but will render it a party described by its critics as “a one-province party”. In simple terms this may mean that the DA is back to the status it had in 2009: control of one province, with no prospect of winning another.
Yet itmust not be overlooked that the party won the Joburg, Tshwane and Cape Town metros in 2016 — the metros with the largest budgets in SA.
The DA’s governance in the two key metros in Gauteng is key to whether it can win the province next year.
But the party has showed little confidence in its Tshwane mayor since he was elected. Solly Msimanga stood for the position of federal chairman at the party’s electoral congress last month, but delegates opted for Nelson Mandela Bay metro mayor Athol Trollip instead.
Gauteng voters are among the most sophisticated in the country, says the province’s premier, David Makhura, who is also ANC deputy chairman in Gauteng. There is little that happens in politics that is not noticed by Gauteng voters.
The DA’s treatment of De Lille in the Western Cape will have an effect on its support in Gauteng.
Its struggle to change its image and its actions against De Lille have brought the DA to a crossroads.
Western Cape Premier Helen Zille — a popular albeit controversial premier —is serving her final term and will leave office after next year’s election.
De Lille has left the building and the DA’s Western Cape leader, Bonginkosi Madikizela, has yet to answer for a lavish birthday bash at the One&Only hotel in Cape Town.
With De Lille and Zille firmly in the exit lounge, the DA in the Western Cape is in unchartered territory, and it is up to voters to decide whether this is safe territory.