Trump’s gross Iran miscalculation
President Donald Trump’s unilateral decision to abrogate the Iran nuclear deal is not only a threat to peace in the Middle East. It also puts the close relationship between the US and its allies in Europe, which has held strong through two world wars, as well as the cold war and its tumultuous aftermath, in serious jeopardy.
On Tuesday Trump described the 2015 joint comprehensive plan of action, which saw Iran mothball its nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief, as “a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made”. It was ineffective, he said, because it imposed only “very weak limits” on Tehran’s nuclear activity. “Even if Iran fully complies, the regime can still be on the verge of a nuclear breakout in just a short period of time.”
He is wrong. According to the majority view in the rest of the world, the rigorous UN inspection regime is working. The International Atomic Energy Agency, monitoring the pact, has repeatedly confirmed Iran’s compliance.
By withdrawing from this international agreement — signed alongside China, France, Germany, Russia, China and the UK and ratified by the UN Security Council in 2015 — it is the US that is in violation of its terms, not Iran.
Trump plans to reimpose sanctions. Iran hawks in Washington believe Tehran can be forced into signing up to a more stringent agreement. They argue this will put a check on Iran’s development of ballistic missiles, curtail its destabilising paramilitarism in the region, and extend the moratorium on its nuclear activity indefinitely. If not, they think, the Iranian economy will be brought to its knees.
This is a gross miscalculation. America’s unilateral walkout not only risks throwing the Middle East into further turmoil, it also erodes the underpinnings of multilateral efforts to control the spread of nuclear arms and will hinder Trump’s own efforts to bring peace to the Korean peninsula. If Trump cannot be trusted to respect US commitments to Iran, why should Kim Jong Un trust him? London, May 10