Tale of two countries on divergent paths
Pumla Dineo Gqola’s latest book, Reflecting the Rogue, contains an essay she wrote in 2014 that reimagines African unity in Robert Sobukwe terms by thinking of ours as “an era that is pregnant with untold possibilities for good and evil” — brutality closing in, but a time that also offers possibilities for imagining new pathways to freedom.
My own reimagination took me to pathways that can be reflected in a tale of two countries: one with a possibility of good and the other of evil. The leaders of both countries have assumed leadership in 2018, one in the horn of Africa and the other on the southern tip of the continent.
Abiy Ahmed was appointed as the prime minister of Ethiopia in February, making him, at the age of 42, Africa’s youngest head of state.
Ethiopia’s huge population of about 102-million makes it the second most populous nation in Africa, after Nigeria. Although it is the fastest growing economy in the region, it is also one of the poorest, with a per-capita income of $783, according to the World Bank. Ethiopia’s economy experienced strong, broadbased growth averaging 10.3% a year between 2005 and 2016, when compared to a regional average of 5.4%.
According to official statistics, GDP is estimated to have rebounded to 10.9% in 2017. Higher economic growth brought with it positive trends in poverty reduction in both urban and rural areas. In 2000, 55.3% of Ethiopians lived in extreme poverty; by 2011 this figure was 33.5%. Ethiopia’s economic successes have been referred to as the “Miracle in the Horn”.
However, the economic growth rate recently declined to about 8%. This setback has led to Abiy announcing economic and political reforms. The economic reforms include the partial privatisation of Ethio Telecom, Ethiopian Power and the Maritime Transport and Logistics Corporation.
On the political front he ceded back land to Eritrea in terms of the Algiers Agreement and both countries will be opening embassies, allowing access to the ports and opening telephone lines.
President Cyril Ramaphosa was also appointed in February. Unlike Abiy’s Ethiopia, South African sewers of corruption are opening wider by the day. Many believed Ramaphosa’s “new dawn” would blow it away, but instead it is getting worse by the day. Whether it is the GDP that has shrunk by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2018, the sticky levels of unemployment at 26.7% or the 54% of South Africans living in poverty, Ramaphosa has no plan to tackle these South African realities. Households are experiencing high costs of living due to VAT, fuel and utility price increases. The per-capita gross national income peaked at $7,540 in 2012 before declining by 28% in 2017 to $5,430. South Africans are getting poorer.
The president needs to implement economic and political reforms. His economic package could include:
● Drastic cuts in government current and capital expenditure and a one-year salary and wage freeze for all public sector employees. However, normal incremental adjustments and specific professional adjustments should be allowed. Also, appeals to the private sector to exercise wage restraint.
● A government plan to embark on a major privatisation programme. This would include the privatisation of the state’s assets in public companies, including Eskom and South African Airways.
The recent political arrangements among the ANC alliance partners have laid out a political manoeuvring and electioneering machine. I see a lot of good in Abiy’s reforms in Ethiopia but evil in the form of corruption and rent-seeking in SA. My optimism is shaky right now, Pumla. I hope you are right that it is just the darkness before dawn and I need to fight for the morning rising sun by exercising my right in the 2019 general elections.