Can electoral body resist fiddling with Zimbabwe poll?
There are three possible outcomes of Monday’s election in Zimbabwe: Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) candidate Nelson Chamisa wins; Zanu-PF candidate Emmerson Mnangagwa wins; or there is no outright winner and there will have to be a run-off. But one thing is certain: Zimbabwe will never be the same again. Robert Mugabe has gone forever.
The crux of the matter is whether the election will be deemed to have been free and fair – and whether the result will be contested.
Mnangagwa desperately needs the international legitimacy that can only be conferred by an election deemed free and fair by the global community.
He has done everything in his power to ensure he gets it — preaching peace and ensuring it by keeping his supporters in check, courting the West, promising jobs and prioritising the foreign business investment that will provide them.
But all his best efforts could be undone by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), a purportedly independent body established in 2004 to run elections. ZEC is compromised. Most Zimbabweans are convinced it is impossible for the commission to run a credible election.
Even though Mugabe has gone, it is still staffed largely by the military and Zanu-PF loyalists and has shown bias towards the governing party in recent months. For example, the law says the ballot paper should be in alphabetical order, which places Chamisa second on the 23-person presidential ballot. The commission cleverly formatted the paper into two lopsided columns to place Mnangagwa at the very top of column two. Secrecy and misinformation have clouded every phase of the electoral process so far.
The voters roll is still a mess. A painstaking checking exercise by a group of independent computer experts revealed recently that the roll contains about 900,000 ghost voters. And ZEC was reluctant to release the roll in the first place – despite this being a legal requirement. The MDC had to secure a high court order to compel the commission to give them a copy — and this was received far too late for them to be able to use it meaningfully or check it thoroughly.
ZEC officials have been less than transparent to say the least — contradicting each other, being economical with the truth, vilifying Chamisa in the media and actively obstructing the MDC at every opportunity. The chairwoman has discredited herself by being photographed in a Zanu-PF scarf and trying to fib her way out of the mess.
Chamisa has said he will not accept a rigged election — Mnangagwa’s threatened to arrest him for “fanning violence”. Both held their final campaign rallies in Harare on Saturday. The local media estimated that Chamisa attracted a far larger crowd than Mnangagwa. This is unprecedented. In the past, Zanu-PF has always ensured that, by whatever means — largely through busing from around the country — their final rally is well supported.
It is therefore highly likely that if Zanu-PF wins, the MDC will cry foul. There are likely to be mass demonstrations and civil disobedience in protest – and Mnangagwa is likely to order the police and army to respond in a robust fashion.
If ZEC’s worst efforts are somehow thwarted and Chamisa wins, it is possible the army will intervene. The top brass has been well rewarded for their role in the November 2017 “coup”. The former commander is now vicepresident and the general who announced the “coup” is now foreign minister. No official announcement has been made, other than a colonel saying vaguely, when pressed by the media, that the army would “follow the constitution”.
Unlike Mugabe, Mnangagwa knows what it is like to lose an election — he lost his seat in 2000 and in 2005. He is not a popular politician. Of late, he has been urging all contestants to accept the results of the election — implying that he himself will do likewise. There have been unconfirmed reports of his emissaries seeking secret guarantees of a safe exit package for him should Chamisa win. Mnangagwa has denied this.
The constitution states that the winner must get 50% of the poll plus 1%. Given that there are 23 candidates for president, the chances of the vote being split several ways are high – and if neither of the frontrunners achieve the 50% plus one there will have to be a run-off. This will give ZEC another chance to ensure that their man wins, because only a simple majority is required.