Ups and downs for both ANC and DA
The race for Gauteng next year is shaping up to be a gruelling battle. Both the ANC and the DA have had a mixed bag of victories and losses, but it is early days and formal campaigning has yet to kick off in earnest.
There are constantly shifting variables but there is one certainty: the economy is going to be a critical factor, especially in Gauteng.
Shock GDP figures for the first quarter, coupled with unemployment rising once again in the second quarter of 2018 to its highest level yet, does not bode well for the ANC.
Gauteng Premier David Makhura said in an interview that it was clear that when the national government sneezes, Gauteng catches a cold, and this was evident in the party’s electoral performance in both the 2014 national election and the 2016 local government election. The ANC slipped to 54% in Gauteng in 2014 from 64% in 2009. In the local government election, aside from losing Johannesburg and Tshwane, its overall support in the province fell to 46%.
It is too early to tell whether the ANC is out of danger, despite the removal of former president Jacob Zuma in February and the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as party president in December. Zuma was a major factor in the ANC’s electoral slide in the province, along with perceptions of corruption and the hugely unpopular e-toll system.
The party’s prospects seem to have improved since Zuma was ousted, with its election polling indicating that Ramaphosa’s announcement on amending the constitution to expropriate land without compensation has boosted its prospects in the large Gauteng townships. The black middle class also wants action on land, prompting the Gauteng provincial government to announce that it was pressing ahead with land expropriation to test legal limits.
Even Joburg mayor Herman Mashaba, by far the DA’s and arguably the province’s most popular mayor at present, said in March he supported expropriation of land without compensation in particular circumstances, despite the DA’s stance to the contrary.
The EFF has proved strongest in Gauteng, with its first electoral performance in the province beating its national share of the vote, and it posted growth again in the 2016 local elections. It remains to be seen whether the ANC has managed to take the wind out of the sails of the fledgling party in the country’s richest province.
At its provincial congress the Gauteng ANC also announced the end of e-tolls, although it has done so before, after the 2014 national election, but it proved powerless to shift the stance of the national government. Only the national government has the power to scrap e-tolls. Could this be a gift Ramaphosa bestows on the Gauteng ANC ahead of the polls? Makhura is in talks with the president, and such a decision would certainly shake up the electoral game.
That said, rising fuel prices and the increased cost of living do not favour the governing party. The ANC in Gauteng received a bloody nose from the electorate over the Life Esidimeni saga, and again when it re-elected the MEC at the centre of it, Qedani Mahlangu, to its provincial executive committee (PEC) in July. Brian Hlongwa, who is alleged to have been involved in corruption involving billions of rand in the provincial health department, also made it back onto the PEC.
The overall picture is of the ANC thumbing its nose at the electorate’s deep unhappiness over the irresponsible handling of the Esidimeni matter and frustration over rampant corruption.
The DA has been the biggest beneficiary of this disgruntlement — electoral support for the party swelled from 22% in 2009 to 31% in 2014. In 2016, it snatched control of the two biggest budget metros and grew its support to 37% in Gauteng. Its growth can be attributed to ANC and government failure but also to a formidable core of activists.
But the DA also faces a tough road ahead of the 2019 polls. While it started off on the right track, emphasising jobs as central to its campaign, it remains distracted by internal squabbles over policy direction. It is also in a pickle over its premier candidate in Gauteng, with the frontrunner for the post being Tshwane mayor Solly Msimanga. The question then becomes who would run Tshwane during the gruelling campaign ahead of the polls, and if he succeeds, who would take his place in the city?
The DA in Gauteng notes three factors that have damaged its prospects: the handling of disciplinary action around Cape Town mayor Patricia De Lille, the debates over the “diversity clause” at its congress and a new row over its policy on broad-based BEE.
While there is agreement on the framework presented by policy head Gwen Ngwenya on shaking up BEE policy, many feel she jumped the gun by publicly announcing a policy proposal only set to be finalised at the end of September.
DA Gauteng leader John Moodey remarked this week that he was seriously concerned that this type of slip-up could cost the party the province.
THERE ARE CONSTANTLY SHIFTING VARIABLES BUT THERE IS ONE CERTAINTY: THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO BE A CRITICAL FACTOR IN GAUTENG