Cosatu faced with an existential threat
The strongest indication that the Ramaphosa honeymoon is over was delivered this week in a scathing attack from union federation Cosatu, the president’s first political home and the first in the ruling party alliance to openly support Cyril Ramaphosa’s presidency.
Cosatu threatened not to support the ANC in the 2019 election should the economic situation — particularly regarding retrenchments — fail to improve.
It is not the first time Cosatu has faced disappointment in its pick for ANC presidency, although the descent into despair has certainly been quicker than it was for former president Jacob Zuma. This despair is quickly morphing into anger, likely to prompt the federation to take far-reaching decisions at its national congress in September.
Among them could be a resolution to push the SA Communist Party towards contesting future elections. Depending on whether the mood in the country shifts by then, it could even put the ANC on terms over which party it will support in the national election in 2019.
Cosatu has repeatedly threatened to withhold its support, but this time its own survival is at stake. This time, if it blinks or capitulates, it risks complete irrelevance.
The conditions in the country are not as they were in 1995, 2005, 2007 or even 2014, when Cosatu emasculated itself rather than threaten the hegemony of the ANC.
It is worth going back to the reasons that propelled Cosatu to call on the ANC to remove Zuma. The discussion on this decision took place some weeks after the announcement of the 2016 election results, in which the ANC’s support nationally slipped to 56% from 64% in the 2011 local government elections.
The party lost control of three metros — including the metro with the largest budget on the continent, Johannesburg, as well as the administrative capital of the country, Tshwane.
Cosatu’s decision to swell the ranks of the ANC might have had noble motives but in the end what it translated to was positions in government.
After 2016, the realisation hit that with an ANC-led government’s electoral support on the decline, positions in the government were set to become hot property.
In addition, Cosatu leaders who had in the past been deployed to the government on an ANC ticket quickly showed where their loyalties were located: with the party deploying them and not the federation. These appointees have therefore had little effect on governance in Cosatu’s favour — in fact many tried hard to prove their loyalty to the ANC to keep their jobs.
A second critical factor in the current landscape is within the labour space itself, where Cosatu is now largely seen as a public sector player. Its competitor, the Federation of Unions of SA (Fedusa), has, according to Cosatu insiders, “come out of their shell”. This has resulted in Fedusa affiliate the Public Service Association (PSA) asserting itself in labour disputes in various sectors of the state. In fact, it was the PSA that threatened the public sector wage talks when it rejected the government’s offer, which had already been signed by Cosatualigned unions.
Then there is the SA Federation of Trade Unions, which by all accounts has not had a huge impact on the union space, except through its largest affiliate, the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (Numsa). Numsa is now a general union, corroding Cosatu unions not only in the private space but also among public sector unions. Its investment company is intent on listing its financial services division on the JSE by 2020. Despite misgivings over whether this should be done in the next two years, even from board members, the Numsa leadership is pushing ahead.
Numsa’s handling of both the bus strike and the Eskom strike has gained the admiration of members of Cosatu unions. This is according to sources inside Cosatu House who are concerned about the influence of unions outside the fold of the federation. The increased competition in the labour space, which mirrors the increased competition in the political space, means Cosatu has little option but to go back to basics. This is the theme of its congress next month, and ironically was the theme pushed by former general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi before he was axed.
Cosatu does not have the luxury any longer of playing the ANC’s game, characterised by positions as a reward for political support, because in future the ANC itself is not guaranteed the number of posts it currently has in parliament and the provincial legislatures.
Its space for dispensing patronage is rapidly narrowing and those who have been at the receiving end of that patronage are having to find alternatives, and fast.
The federation is also faced with a dire economic situation that is placing its members at risk, including wage deals at state-owned enterprises such as Eskom, where fiscal room has been narrowed due to years of state capture and corruption.
The public sector is next, with talk of large-scale retrenchments of retirementaged employees on the cards.
While reports that 30,000 public sector employees are set to be retrenched have been rejected by the government, those near retirement age are set to be worked out of the system, and the numbers could potentially be above those projected publicly.
This means that at its conference Cosatu will have to consider adopting a vastly different stance toward its allies, which it has traditionally protected as a matter of principle. It is now facing the arduous task of choosing between its own organisational existence and that of its political masters in the ANC.
INCREASED COMPETITION IN THE LABOUR SPACE [AND] POLITICAL SPACE MEANS COSATU HAS LITTLE OPTION BUT TO GO BACK TO BASICS
Marrian is political editor.