Only bold risk-taking will stop us bundu-bashing to precipice
We are beginning to get a clearer line of sight of how the next five years in SA will look.
Without an unlikely gamechanging event — such as the ANC losing the 2019 election, the governing party completely overhauling its strategic posture or splitting – we are pretty much locked into the path we are on, which is a long and painful downward trajectory of the economy, living standards and social cohesion.
It is a very negative outlook. It could be averted, but that would require great vision and courage by both political leaders and voters.
Either ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa would need to forge an alliance directly with voters, leaving the ANC to follow him or to split; or the offering of the DA (and other opposition parties) would have to somehow become far more compelling. It is in part the ANC’s decision to change the constitution to make expropriation without compensation explicit that affirmed this outlook.
In the past six months the governing party had done a reasonable job of building a case in its own ranks to argue that the constitution did not require amending.
It was not a foregone conclusion that the national executive committee would take the decision it did. The fact that it did, and that reports from that meeting are to the effect that it was Ramaphosa himself who made the argument for constitutional change, says a great deal about the ANC’s fallibility to populism. The decision was also an alarming sign that Ramaphosa is making it up as he goes along.
It is not that he is doing nothing. State-owned enterprises are being cleaned up; there is progress to stimulate the tourism sector; policy on broadband spectrum and energy is slowly emerging; and work for the jobs and investment summits will lead to some projects and programmes.
But it has become apparent that there is no grand plan or strategic game-changer lurking out of sight.
Big and powerful social dynamics are ranged against effecting change in the political sphere. The interests of social actors — in particular big business and big labour — are embedded. Neither is inclined to make sacrifices. Business has the option of investing elsewhere and will not be persuaded to invest out of social commitment.
Labour is adamant that it won’t be the class that pays the price for the excesses of the Zuma years. Unions also make crucial reforms, such as restructuring the national budget and improving education for the poor and working class, impossible without big confrontation.
The short-termism permeates through communities. The wealthy are seeking to reduce their exposure to SA. Township communities are also not prepared to act for the greater good and pay for services such as electricity. They ignore exhortations from the government not to burn public property or to loot the shops of foreigners.
Although a majority of people still vote for the ANC, the party no longer has moral authority. There is a breakdown of legitimacy of the state. The ANC is unable to lead, unite and persuade as it did in the 1980s and 1990s.
This brings us to the problem that weighs most heavily on SA’s political life: the dead weight burden of the ANC. The fight-back against Ramaphosa and his right-hand man, Pravin Gordhan, is huge.
THERE IS NO GRAND PLAN … BIG AND POWERFUL SOCIAL DYNAMICS ARE RANGED AGAINST EFFECTING CHANGE IN THE POLITICAL SPHERE
The Zuma camp, assisted by the EFF, has launched an offensive against Gordhan, accusing him of targeting black excellence.
On the ground, the ANC exists only to fight elections. Ramaphosa’s deputy, David Mabuza, and ANC treasurer Paul Mashatile are watching for any missteps; they want to take over.
A last-ditch attempt to shift these dynamics lies in Ramaphosa’s hands. The fact that he has greater popularity in society than in the ANC gives him the chance to forge a new political direction, through an alliance with the mass of voters in the middle ground. It will require taking on the vested interests in the ANC and in the unions. It will require isolating the EFF and looking for alliances among other opposition parties and with business. It will require relinquishing the dream of ANC unity above all else.
It is high risk. When Thabo Mbeki ran ahead of the ANC, it ended badly for him. But an ambitious plan to change the path we are on is urgently needed.