Now and Zen: why Port Elizabeth’s new mayor is no safe bet

There is a scene in the movie Charlie

Wilson’s War about a little boy, a Zen master and a horse. The movie was about the background role played by a notorious playboy US congressman in surreptitiously helping the ● mujahideen defeat the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, partly by secretly issuing them with the FIM-92 Stinger, which nullified the Soviet dominance of the air.

The scene was a party held for Wilson after watching the last Soviet tank leave Afghanistan, and the mood among the small group of Americans who helped in this process was ecstatic. The Soviet Union had had its Vietnam experience, which would contribute to its collapse soon afterwards.

At the party, a canny CIA operative told the half-drunk Wilson the story of the boy and the Zen master: on his 14th birthday a boy is given a horse, and everybody in the village says, “How wonderful! The boy got a horse.” The Zen master says, “We’ll see.”

Two years later the boy falls off the horse and breaks his leg. Everybody in the village says, “How terrible!” And the Zen master says, “We’ll see.” Then a war breaks out, and all the young men go off and fight, except the boy because his leg is all messed up. And everybody in the village says, “How wonderful!” And the Zen master says, “We’ll see.”

The story was knowingly predictive. Although the US helped the mujahideen against the Soviets, the postwar vacuum provided the space for Al-Qaeda to take root, and soon its sights were focused on the US. And then there was 9/11, and the rest.

The ousting of the DA’s Nelson Mandela Bay mayor, Athol Trollip, reminds me of this story. The EFF were ecstatic about their victory, and “slitting the throat” of a white mayor. Well, we’ll see.

The ANC and EFF’s problem is that they have now installed the UDM’s candidate, Mongameli Bobani, as mayor. Unusually for local government politics, we have on hand a really in-depth, perceptive, behind-thescenes account from an ANC appointee about what happened in Nelson Mandela Bay, in Crispian Olver’s book How to Steal a City.

The book is a remarkable document even though its premise was widely known; the city’s finances were dragooned by a criminal network that worked through supporters in the council. It was captured, in the same way the Guptas captured national government.

Even though the main actors who played this support role were mostly ANC cadres, the book is very explicit about Bobani’s role. These are some of the things Bobani did during this period, as recorded by Olver:

He accused internal auditor Bonnie Chan of “tampering” with the process of hiring her deputy. Charges were brought against her, which were eventually dismissed. But nobody missed the significance of this; if you are going to skim the city’s money, obviously you need to control the auditor’s office.

He launched a spurious legal challenge to have then city manager Lindiwe Msengana-Ndlela dismissed. She was not a supporter, and her life was repeatedly threatened in the most brutal way. So she left.

He was one of a trio of mayoral committee members who routinely postponed items on the human settlements committee agenda. Olver discovered that this was so applicants for building permits could be forced to pay kickbacks.

He scorned then mayor Danny Jordaan’s anticorruption proposals when they were first proposed.

He strongly supported corporate services head Mod Ndoyana, who was ultimately charged with tender fraud and then dismissed.

THE CITY’S FINANCES WERE DRAGOONED BY A CRIMINAL NETWORK THAT WORKED THROUGH SUPPORTERS IN THE COUNCIL

He opposed the appointment of graft-busting city manager Johan Mettler, one of SA’s most successful “turnaround” managers.

This last issue is particularly significant because Mettler is currently the city manager, so one can assume the council will be in disarray while the new coalition tries to find ways to oust him.

In 2016 the DA won 46.7% of the vote, compared with the ANC’s 41% and EFF’s 5%. The support levels lead to a contradictory question: was the will of the electorate that the DA should run the council, or was the will of the people that an ANC-EFF-UDM alliance should run the council? The tally provides support for both propositions.

But the interesting thing about the result was the actual number of voters. The turnout in this crucial election was 63%, which seems extremely low. The total of votes cast for the ANC, EFF and UDM in 2016 was less than what the ANC got by itself in 2011.

What this illustrates is that ANC voters were staying away, and that suggests the powerful bond between voters and the ANC is fraying. Snatching power back in the council will further erode that sense of trust.

The ANC, not to mention the EFF, considers itself a victor in this process, and objectively it is. But, you know, we’ll see.