ANC’s unity game plan is falling apart
The ANC’s “breaking up is hard to do” political routine has come back to bite President Cyril Ramaphosa in the back. If the president is surprised that the now-loose faction around former president Jacob Zuma is plotting to oust him, he is hopelessly naive. The unity narrative has been twisted to the benefit of the faction who were hellbent on selling the state to the highest bidder.
The disclosure in the Sunday Times of a plot to oust Ramaphosa — which was denied by its participants, mainly ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule — shows that the ANC’s new leadership has underestimated the desperation of a group of leaders who are heading for jail time if they do not disrupt the current, tenuous balance of forces in the party and the country.
This is the same group that is now using Ramaphosa’s unity narrative as a shield, as it bides its time to disrupt the status quo.
However, where did the “unity” narrative emanate from and what was its intention? It was not to shield those at the centre of allegations of state capture and corruption, nor was it to weaken the ANC to such an extent that the paralysis during the Zuma years simply continues into the 2019 election.
The “unity ticket” at the ANC’s Nasrec conference in December was undoubtedly the biggest winner — it is what ensured Ramaphosa’s victory, but also that of deputy president David Mabuza and treasurer Paul Mashatile.
The unity narrative was spearheaded by these leaders in an attempt to prevent a split in the party and to ensure a credible candidate at the helm, as well as their places in the top leadership. The “unity ticket” won, barring one position – that of secretary-general, which Magashule surreptitiously snatched from Senzo Mchunu by a mere 24 votes.
It is no secret that Mashatile and Mabuza had been in talks around a “third way” or “unity” approach for months before the conference. Mabuza handing over the votes of his province to Ramaphosa was no accident — it was as a consequence of his recognition that a Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma presidency, with its clear ties to Zuma, would most certainly have disastrous consequences for the ANC in the 2019 election.
It is not to say that either Mabuza or Mashatile particularly favoured Ramaphosa, but it had become clear that the only route to retaining power was neutralising the Zuma faction, once and for all.
Nor did they favour the Zuma group, notably Magashule, whose win caught everyone by surprise.
It was clear from the outset that the values — if such a thing still exists in the governing party — of the Ramaphosa faction and those of the Dlamini-Zuma faction were irreconcilable.
The “unity” narrative was a convenient one for Mabuza and his allies to assert themselves and secure their own positions in the ANC’s top six. Their approach, in this writer’s view, backfired — as the “unity” ticket became the vehicle with which the Zuma faction retained power and influence in the party, through the back door, as their representation on the national executive committee (NEC) remains significant.
It was difficult to see how the two factions would coexist, with one attempting to clean up and restore the state and the party to a semblance of normality, and another bent on chaos to ensure that they escape accountability for their actions.
This juxtaposition is clearly illustrated in the way the ANC secretariat communicates through spokesperson Pule Mabe and the communication from the presidency in Luthuli House through its head Zizi Kodwa. While Mabe dismissed the Sunday Times story as lies, Kodwa simply dismissed the meeting as one that was not organised by the ANC and referred questions to those who participated in it.
It is clear to see that there has been a conscious attempt to manage communication of the party line to the public by Magashule after a few disastrous initial post-Nasrec media briefings.
After the lekgotla, it was Ramaphosa who announced the critical outcome of the meeting on amending the constitution to expropriate land without compensation.
At the media briefing to announce further outcomes of the lekgotla, Magashule was flanked by a host of NEC members who spoke specifically on issues, leaving him to simply read out a carefully scripted statement. The ANC’s response to the recession was dealt with by its economic head.
It is clear that at every turn, the party’s key decision makers are moving to neutralise Magashule. However, it is clearly not enough as he and the remaining Zuma loyalists persist in their attempt to recapture the party.
Ramaphosa’s lip service that the country is more important than the party is being exposed — if this was so, he would be more swift and ruthless in dealing with those bent on pursuing the capture project.
Unity, after all, continues to be a self-serving farce for his opponents in the ANC.
IT IS CLEAR THAT AT EVERY TURN, THE PARTY’S KEY DECISION MAKERS ARE MOVING TO NEUTRALISE MAGASHULE