It’s the economy, sure, but politics may still reign
President Cyril Ramaphosa has taken SA to a far better place since December, but hard questions remain about impediments to a turnaround
President Cyril Ramaphosa is having a terrific year. It started off with the ANC anniversary celebrations in East London in January when he took charge of the party after his election as its leader in December.
He laid out his game plan, called for unity among the ANC faithful and made it clear that the country would be changing course. There was no doubt he was “the coming man”.
A month later, former president Jacob Zuma’s power was decimated. After trying desperately to hold on to the presidency, he made a clumsy, undignified exit from office.
Ramaphosa became SA’s fifth president on February 15 and, a day later, he delivered his first state of the nation address. The country embraced its new president and his message of hope and renewal.
Since then, the sands have been shifting.
Zuma was charged and is facing trial for corruption; the state-capturing Gupta family fled the country; Tom Moyane was suspended as the head of the SA Revenue Service (Sars) and faces disciplinary steps; Shaun Abrahams left the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) after the Constitutional Court found his appointment unconstitutional; Godfrey Lebeya was appointed as the new head of the Hawks; and public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan undertook a major clean-up of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
The Zondo commission began piecing together statecapture while the Nugent commission unravelled Moyane’s fiefdom at Sars.
Ramaphosa embarked on a huge investment drive to turn around SA’s economic prospects; hosted the Brics summit with much aplomb; and made his first address to the UN General Assembly.
Last week, more than a thousand people gathered for the presidential investment summit in Sandton at which Ramaphosa was the man of the moment. It brought to a climax the work of his special envoys and his own efforts to pump up foreign and domestic investment in the country.
The summit ended with major corporations lining up to announce their investment pledges, totalling R290bn. The president sat on stage wearing the delighted smile of a child receiving presents at his birthday party. The pledges were dressed up to look like new investment initiatives created especially to respond to Ramaphosa’s economic turnaround campaign. Most of them were not.
There were some new private-sector projects but the announcements included public development money from international development agencies, new lending from the (formerly Brics) New Development Bank, as well as long intended spending by the public and private sector.
The event closed with a dinner addressed by the iconic co-founder of Chinese tech giant Alibaba, Jack Ma, who spoke of his bromance with the president. “In five minutes, I fell in love with this guy,” said the 10th-richest man in the world.
This week, Ramaphosa has been in Berlin where he held talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel and attended the Group of 20 Compact with Africa Conference and the Group of 20 Investment Summit.
Ramaphosa faced a major hurdle earlier this month when Nhlanhla Nene offered his resignation as finance minister after admitting to the Zondo commission a series of meetings with the Gupta state capturers. But the crisis abated within days when Ramaphosa appointed the widely respected Tito Mboweni to the portfolio.
So it all seems to be coming up roses for Ramaphosa, who appears to be cantering confidently towards the sixth democratic elections in 2019, towing along a bedraggled ANC.
But here’s the problem: the rest of SA is not having as fabulous a time as the president.
There is positive sentiment, yes, and people have generally welcomed the initiatives Ramaphosa has undertaken to turn around the country’s fortunes. But people’s lives have become more difficult, particularly through the VAT and fuel increases, and essentials, such as transport, electricity and data being prohibitively expensive.
On Tuesday, Stats SA said the country’s unemployment rate rose to 27.5% in the third quarter, up 0.3 percentage points. In the context of a recession and international ratings agencies still cautious about SA, the country remains in a dire state.
One thing that was not raised even once at the investment summit was the political situation and whether the investor community can be assured of stability after a wild ride over the past few years.
It was probably not brought up because nobody can really answer the question as next year’s election outcome is rather unpredictable. Even with the high-level changes in SA, it is difficult to test political sentiment on the ground with so much disenchantment over the cost of living, corruption and the lack of consequences for the devastation caused during the Zuma presidency.
What happens if the ANC does not win a majority in the election or if the fightback campaign in the ANC against Ramaphosa succeeds? What guarantees can Ramaphosa give that investing in SA is a safe bet and that he will remain riding high next year?
Some of the business leaders attending last week’s summit say they did not want to spoil the party by asking the hard questions. While the changes to the visa regime and the cleanup of SOEs have been welcomed, huge impediments to investment remain that have not been tackled, including labour, electricity and tax costs.
Nobody really expected Ramaphosa to work miracles in just eight months, and there has to be acknowledgement of the progress made compared to where we were a year ago, when phase two of the Zuma era was a very real prospect. But for SA’s recovery process to really advance, there needs to be tangible, ground-level impact, mainly through job creation and improvement in the quality of people’s lives.
Change needs to be felt by all, not observed through the wonderful moments in the life of our president.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE ANC DOES NOT WIN A MAJORITY IN THE ELECTION OR THE FIGHTBACK AGAINST RAMAPHOSA IN THE ANC SUCCEEDS?