Make enemies and save the economy
ZUMA’S SUPPORTERS, WHO BACKED RAMAPHOSA’S RIVAL, HAVE NOT DEMOBILISED. THIS IS DESPITE REPEATED DENIALS THAT THERE IS A PLOT AGAINST RAMAPHOSA
Once upon a time, there was a priest who had saved thousands of souls, but clearly that was not good enough for him. As fate would have it, the opportunity of his life arrived when the philosopher Voltaire lay on his deathbed.
The worthy man of God thought that the occasion of extreme unction would be a perfect moment to save the soul of the irreverent thinker.
He asked Voltaire if he renounced the Devil and all his works. But to his great surprise, Voltaire replied: “My man, this is no time for me to be making enemies.”
This is exactly the sort of situation in which the ANC president and the country’s leader finds himself at this point.
Since being installed as interim president last February, Cyril Ramaphosa has passed up several chances to rejuvenate his cabinet and revive the sagging economy. Instead, he has opted to not recruit new party enemies.
For the past two weeks, speculation has been rife of a much-needed reshuffle to take the party into next year’s general elections. It is common cause that a reshuffle would be good for the country and economy, especially following the series of own-goals by home affairs minister Malusi Gigaba, who was found by the public protector and courts to have lied.
Public protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane recommended that Ramaphosa sanction Gigaba, and the obvious sanction would have been for him to be sacked from the cabinet and another young person brought in to pick up executive experience ahead of 2019. Someone like attorney Ronald Lamola.
Gigaba, who resigned unexpectedly yesterday, wasn’t the only candidate who should have been fired.
Others whose jobs should be on line are Nomvula Mokonyane, Rob Davies and Bathabile Dlamini.
Ramaphosa’s summits on jobs and investment and his “stimulus package” have done what they could to shift the dial, but a major shake-up would bolster confidence in the economy ahead of next year’s elections.
Bringing in the maverick Tito Mboweni has not been sufficient.
Unfortunately, no such move has taken place. Instead, preelection paralysis has set in.
The late Edna Molewa, who was one of few effective ministers , could be replaced, but Ramaphosa is unlikely to shake things up significantly. Party unity is trumping everything else right now because Ramaphosa, who won the party leadership with a slim majority, has yet to consolidate his power base in the ANC.
His biggest nightmare is his predecessor, Jacob Zuma, who unlike other former ANC leaders continues to wield considerable and divisive influence in the party.
Zuma’s supporters, who backed Ramaphosa’s rival and now planning and performance minister Nkosazana DlaminiZuma at the party’s 54th elective conference last December, have not demobilised after their defeat. This is despite repeated denials that there is a plot against Ramaphosa.
Although Ramaphosa’s election has re-energised the party’s support in urban areas, there are threats that the ANC could lose support in provinces that supported Dlamini-Zuma, such as KwaZulu-Natal, the North West and Free State (portions of which might be placed under administration before the end of the year).
Of all the provinces that are under threat, KwaZulu-Natal is the one that should be keeping Ramaphosa awake at night.
Not only is this Zuma’s home base, but it is a province where the sorry state of the main opposition the DA and EFF means they are irrelevant in electoral terms.
Instead, the ANC’s internecine battles, including intra-party killings, might benefit the IFP, which is enjoying a resurgence in the province. This explains, in part, why individuals such as Gigaba, who did more than enough to get himself fired, seemed so confident that Ramaphosa wouldn’t act against them.
The ANC’s process of selecting MPs to serve in the sixth parliament, which is currently under way, is a further constraint to Ramaphosa’s axe.
Weekend reports suggested that his enforcers, such as health minister Aaron Motsoaledi, have been battling to keep Gigaba and others off the list of potential ANC MPs.
The ANC’s intrigues and machinations are fascinating to watch. But they are bad for governance and the economy, which badly needs attention and serious action to pull the country out of recession.
Ramaphosa wants to minimise the number of his pre-election enemies in his party, just as much as the great philosopher did, but for as long as he does the economy will continue to suffer.