Warming set to exceed goal by far

Average world temperatures are on course to exceed by far the main goal set in the 2015 Paris agreement on limiting global warming, a study shows.

But the overshoot by the end of the century may be less severe than expected thanks to some countries fighting climate change, reports Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a consortium of three European research groups. The Paris agreement aims to restrict warming to “well below” 2°C higher than it was in pre-industrial times.

Envoys of countries are meeting in Poland from December 2 to 14 to agree on guidelines for implementing the pact taking effect in 2020, but it is feared these will be too weak to limit temperature rise to safe levels.

The CAT report says there has been progress since 2015, but current policies mean the world is heading for warming of 3.3°C. That compared with the 3.4°C it predicted a year ago. It says that if governments implement policies in the pipeline warming by 2100 could be limited to 3°C.

OVERSHOOT BY END OF CENTURY COULD BE LESS SEVERE THAN EXPECTED THANKS TO SOME COUNTRIES TO COMBATING CLIMATE CHANGE

Even a rise of 3°C could cause loss of tropical coral reefs, Alpine glaciers, Arctic summer sea ice and perhaps an irreversible melting of Greenland ice, which would drive up sea levels, a UN science panel has said.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in October that keeping the rise to 1.5°C was possible but required rapid and unprecedented changes in human behaviour.

“We have yet to see this translate into action in terms of what governments are prepared to put on the table,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, one of the three CAT research groups.

Since the Paris accord was agreed, countries including Argentina, Canada, Chile and India as well as the EU are moving in the right direction, towards cutting emissions. Norway and Costa Rica are making progress with low-carbon transport and renewable energy, but China’s carbon emissions rose again in 2018, the report says.

With prices for renewables dropping roughly a third since Paris, SA and Chile are mapping out strategies to address coal, and renewables are taking off in India,” said Niklas Höhne of research group NewClimate Institute. But countries including the US, Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates made no progress or took backwards steps.