Keep an eye on feline foray to North West
The Cat has been dispatched to resolve the ANC’s thorny problem of the return of the North West ’ s Black Jesus. Deputy president David Mabuza, who infamously declared that “the cat is back” after his return from a lengthy illness during his tenure as Mpumalanga premier, is heading up a “rapid response team” to deal with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s opponent in the North West.
While Ramaphosa has his hands full as president —mainly preventing an economic meltdown brought on by Eskom’s financial crisis — he still has to keep, and strengthen, his grip on the ANC.
This is where the biggest risk to his presidency lurks as desperation sets in among those who sought to loot the state with impunity under former president Jacob Zuma.
On Wednesday the high court in Pretoria reversed an ANC national executive committee (NEC) decision to disband the North West leadership, presided over by Supra Mahumapelo, once fondly described by his supporters as the “Black Jesus”. The judgment in effect gave the ANC two court days to reinstate the provincial executive committee (PEC), meaning Mahumapelo returns to his powerful post as the party’s North West chair.
On the surface, it is a blow to Ramaphosa. Neutralising Mahumapelo was a victory for his camp shortly after the presidents’ slim ascent to the helm of the ANC.
Now the “Black Jesus” is back and, rhetoric about unity aside, he remains a key mover and shaker in the erstwhile Zuma faction, along with ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule.
But it will not be smooth sailing for Mahumapelo either. It is important to remember that the term of the North West PEC has expired. That occurred in 2018, but the province was so intensely divided as Mahumapelo’s PEC sought to assert its dominance by fiddling with regional conferences that the elective gathering could not proceed. As a result, the conference was put on ice by the NEC, with one eye on the upcoming general elections.
The ANC’s decision to appeal the judgment is a clever play for time. An appeal would stall any prospect of Mahumapelo’s return to the post ahead of the elections. In the meantime, Mabuza will head to the province to try to broker a political solution to the problem.
Such a solution is not unusual, particularly since the ANC’s Nasrec conference. The impasse in KwaZulu-Natal over the party’s provincial executive was resolved politically after the court set aside the outcome of the province’s elective conference. Due to the political solution, the court process fell by the wayside.
In the North West situation, as the ANC’s appeal of the matter proceeds, the NECappointed task team will remain in place in the absence of clarity on the matter.
The general elections will also play a role. While the North West was once a strong power base for the ANC, electoral support for the party has declined significantly, in line with national trends but particularly under Mahumapelo. ANC support in the province dropped from 73% in 2009 to 67% in 2014. Its showing was even more shocking at local level, falling from 69% in 2011 to 59% in 2016.
Protests in the province early in 2018 demonstrated just how unpopular Mahumapelo has become among the electorate in the province.
Allegations of widespread corruption by Mahumapelo and his allies have fuelled citizens’ anger. His court victory this week does not alter the fact that he stepped down as premier due to chaotic and violent demonstrations by workers and ordinary citizens protesting against his misgovernance of the province.
A government task team headed by his own choice for party president, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, found that the North West had accumulated R15.3bn in irregular spending across the provincial government in 2016/17, having risen from R8.6bn in 2013/14. The task team found that governance in the province had essentially collapsed.
Internal party polling suggests a continued retreat from the ANC in the North West and the further ascent of the EFF. Such a scenario could strengthen Ramaphosa’s hand in dealing with Mahumapelo, despite the court challenge. But all is not lost for Ramaphosa in dealing with the “Black Jesus” conundrum. Dispatching Mabuza to deal with the situation may also prove instructive in determining where his loyalties lie, given the obvious distrust between the two.
In the end, Ramaphosa still stands a strong chance of neutralising Mahumapelo in the North West. But the ANC remains heavily contested terrain, a factor Ramaphosa cannot afford as he goes about rolling back the “lost nine years”.
The North West judgment shows that he cannot afford to ignore this contestation, even as the party closes ranks ahead of the upcoming election campaign season.
There is far too much at stake for those who are set to face the wrath of institutions such as the National Prosecuting Authority, which for the first time in a decade is positioning itself to fulfil its constitutional mandate.
The sojourn from factional fighting will be brief, and its resurgence thereafter will be rapid and aggressive.
HIS COURT VICTORY DOES NOT ALTER THE FACT THAT HE STEPPED DOWN AS PREMIER DUE TO VIOLENT DEMONSTRATIONS BY WORKERS AND ORDINARY CITIZENS