Zuma faction and EFF playing the numbers game
Fear is a powerful emotion, and playing on it can allow some to get others to do the opposite of what they want to do. An example is EFF leader Julius Malema’s claim that President Cyril Ramaphosa will be forced out before his term ends. Malema was probably, as he has been for a while, acting as a mouthpiece for the ANC’s Zuma faction, saying things they can’t say themselves.
Jacob Zuma’s supporters obviously want Ramaphosa
gone before his term ends. And they know that the more people believe he will be forced out the easier it will be to get rid of him. Many voters who reject the Zuma-led ANC will vote for one led by Ramaphosa. They may not do this if they think voting ANC will propel the Zuma group back into the presidency.
This is why it suits Malema to spread this claim if they believe Ramaphosa won’t last long, some of these voters might vote EFF. It suits the Zuma group, too, because they do not want the ANC to do too well in this election. If it does, they will be unable to remove Ramaphosa.
They cannot, as some predict, get rid of him at the ANC national general council in 2020 because this meeting has no power to remove a president. In fact, no ANC president has been removed before the end of their term: presidents are removed only if they fail to win re-election.
The only procedure in the ANC constitution that allows for a president’s removal is a disciplinary process. But since the leadership controls disciplinary structures, they can be used easily to remove the president’s opponents (Zuma used it to get rid of Malema and his allies) but not a president. Even if the Zuma group got hold of the disciplinary committee and used it to unseat Ramaphosa, its decision could be overturned in court.
So those in the ANC who want Ramaphosa gone will have to wait to try to defeat him at its 2022 conference if the ANC wins the May election, he will be state president for almost four years whatever his opponents do. Whether he wins in 2022 depends largely on the ANC’s performance at the polls.
If it does better than the 55% it won in 2016, Ramaphosa would be responsible for the first increase in the ANC vote since Zuma replaced Thabo Mbeki. To the delegates who decide who leads the ANC, the message would be clear: the Zuma faction costs votes, the Ramaphosa group adds them.
In any democracy, a leader who wins votes is likely to be backed by party members because this brings more opportunities to hold elected office. In this country, this is even more important because, for many politicians, the difference between holding office and losing a seat is that between being middle-class or poor. Delegates at the 2022 conference will not throw out a president who expands opportunities to join the middleclass to vote in one who will reduce them.
This is why while the Zuma group want the ANC to win this election, they don’t want it to win by much because this would greatly damage their chances of taking over in 2022. They and Malema know that claiming Ramaphosa will be forced out has a strong chance of being believed because many voters harbour deep fears that the country will return to the Zuma era. Ironically, the more these voters believe them, the more likely the Zuma group comeback they fear becomes.
By not voting ANC because they fear Ramaphosa won’t last, they make it much more likely that he will lose his post by turning him from a vote winner to a vote loser.
● Friedman is research professor with the humanities faculty of the University of Johannesburg.