Ramaphosa’s fans may be the problem
We are not short of explanations for the apparent drift of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration. The legacies of Jacob Zuma’s decade of destruction are more damaging than we could have imagined. Regional barons who campaigned on Ramaphosa’s coattails are insisting on business as usual. The alliance partners Ramaphosa relied on to become president, the SACP and Cosatu, now circumscribe his policy options. Business is unwilling to invest.
More curiously, Ramaphosa’s leadership is constantly portrayed as under threat from a Zuma-aligned
“fightback” crew. Yet the alleged rebels invariably turn out to be insubstantial has-beens, already exposed crooks or political weaklings destined for prison or the backbenches of parliament. How do we explain this apparent paradox?
One possibility is it is not the fightback crew but supposed political backers of Ramaphosa
and a wider pro-Ramaphosa citizenry who are unable fully to commit to his success. Prominent figures in the party have plainly not rallied behind their new leader in times of difficulty. Cabinet ministers the president has only recently appointed have refused to stick their necks out, even with their own portfolios involved. Senior officials in mission-critical posts have been hedging their conspiracy linked to the ANC bets.’ s
In the face of surely fanciful rumours about a “recall” toothless national general council in 2020, Ramaphosa insists he is going nowhere. This should be unnecessary: the ANC is incapable of a leadership election between conferences, and there is no consensus for deputy ANC president David Mabuza, treasurer-general Paul Mashatile or health minister Zweli Mkhize.
There are ways in which Ramaphosa could establish a sense of inevitability about his leadership. The possibility that Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma might step in needs to be decisively ruled out: too many hangers-on of Mkhize, Mashatile and Mabuza see this as their last hope of a run at the ANC presidency in 2022.
Meanwhile, no president can stand up in front of a troubled country and take the flak alone. Ramaphosa can bring his ministers and officials to heel only if it is clear what the government stands for. It is a career skill of politicians to take credit for good times and hide when things are bad. This is why the government needs to have a collective “line” on every key issue. Endless negotiations with Luthuli House to find a compromise cannot work.
Ministers should repeat the government line loudly and clearly, and not duck and dive while emitting evasive tweets. If ministers are unwilling to defend the government’s positions, Ramaphosa should remove them and replace them with younger ministers who want his project to succeed.
SACP general secretary Blade Nzimande has been virtually alone in support of Ramaphosa. Even this has been a minimal effort, given the undeserved array of cabinet positions granted to the party.
Much the same is true of Cosatu. Ramaphosa delivered the minimum wage, while Cosatu has delivered little but intransigence, threats and economic disruption.
There is a wider ambivalence in the media and in society at large about Ramaphosa’s project. This extends to many who really wanted him to succeed. The tension that built up among proRamaphosa citizens in the runup to the 2017 conference of the ANC was followed by a powerful sense of relief and hope after the “Thuma Mina” state of the nation address.
And as every football fan knows, it’s hope that kills you.
● Butler teaches public policy at the University of Cape Town.