EU expects another delay in Brexit

The UK Supreme Court ruling against British Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week has rekindled speculation in the EU about another Brexit delay, with the bloc drawing a line in the sand of mid-2020 at the latest.

The UK Supreme Court ruling against British Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week rekindled speculation in the EU about another Brexit delay, with the bloc drawing a line in the sand of mid-2020 at latest.

The British parliament reconvened on Wednesday after the court ruled that Johnson disbanded the chamber illegally. He insists he will take Britain out of the EU on October 31, with or without a deal with the EU.

But British MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit are back at work, and have more chances to upset Johnson’s plans.

With the divorce deal stalled, the EU expects another delay in Brexit, postponed twice since the original March deadline.

“We are in favour of an extension if we also see what is the way forward, will there be a general election, a second referendum, will there be a withdrawal agreement?” said Guy Verhofstadt, an EU MP dealing with Brexit.

“I think that there is unanimity ... to say, ‘OK, let’s go forward with an extension if there is a clear path to a solution and unwinding of the situation we have today’,” he told EU MPs on Wednesday afternoon.

The bloc sees a British general election expected by the end of the year as the most likely justification of another delay. That decision would require the unanimity of the other 27 EU states.

Britain would have to request an extension, which Johnson vows never to do. EU Brexit watchers speculate about him quitting to let someone else take the step. The EU could demand a delay, which Britain would need to agree to for it to take effect.

But diplomats and officials dealing with Brexit in the bloc’s hub Brussels ruled out such a possibility, saying it would risk feeding Johnson’s rhetoric about distant elites trying to frustrate the will of the people.

When EU leaders meet in Brussels on October 17-18 to discuss a delay, Johnson will not be allowed in the room.

The House of Commons passed a law for London to seek postponement until end-January 2020 to avert an abrupt split on October 31 should no new divorce deal be reached at the EU summit in three weeks.

“January may be a bit too soon for us,” said one EU diplomat. “It is far from clear that Britain would be able to sort itself out by then and we would risk another summit at the turn of the year to push back another no-deal prospect. A six-month delay until the end of March might be better for us.”

Brexit weighs heavily on the EU’s work on its next long-term budget from 2021. Several diplomats said there could be no extensions beyond mid-2020, when the bloc needs to have clarity on whether Britain will go on paying EU dues.

Another risk with an extension is the more hawkish stance of French President Emmanuel Macron. Backed by Belgium and Luxembourg, he opposed granting the latest delay..

His camp stresses the cost of protracted uncertainty in terms of sapping the EU’s political capital and attention needed to face many challenges.

“This is a nightmare,” Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel said this week, highlighting the EU’s fatigue in the tortuous process. “People would love to have clarity.”

But most EU diplomats and officials think the bloc will grant another delay if London requests it to avoid taking the blame for no-deal disruption.