Old stories about jobless crisis don’t work anymore
There are many stories about the dynamics in the world of work, especially in the rural and isolated areas of the country. Some stories are funny, others are sad, but often they are just alarming.
One of these stories was retold to me by a consultant who worked with local community members to ensure they were included in a new project in their area.
After the first week, in which the workers worked and were paid their wages, they did not return. The employer called the consultant to find out why, and after a short investigation, it was found they had thought the job was over.
It turns out that the way they had worked previously was by way of “piece jobs”, in which they were required to work for short periods and were then terminated after getting payment. They had never worked for sustained periods before, so getting paid was seen as an indication that the employment was over.
A related example is where people work in turns, which means they work one week, are replaced the following week, and are then hired again, and so on. It would appear that this sets a culture in people’s minds.
These stories tell us something important about the dynamics and culture that have developed in SA, and relations between employers and employees. This is especially so in rural areas, but these stories are by no means definitive.
Over the past year, I’ve spent much of my time investigating the nature and causes of unemployment in SA, and connected to this the future of work. I’ve interacted with people and visited various geographies in an effort to investigate the structure of work and employee-worker relations in the country, and what the rest of the world looks like.
This work is intended to explain, in a detailed and scientific way, the nature and causes of our unemployment crisis. It is easy to latch on to anecdotes and stable narratives about the crisis we face, but we know that in the past this has not been particularly helpful.
Over the past five years, for example, according to Stats SA the labour force has grown by more than 2.7million, but the number of employed by only 1.2-million. That doesn’t surprise us because we see unemployment rising to shocking levels. It’s also a well-discussed dynamic that the jobs are being created in the finance and trade sectors of our economy.
What has been surprising is that almost all new jobs are going to people in the 35-54 age category. Those in the under-25 age group are not only not getting jobs, but are being laid off. This trend is a concern and somewhat confusing if we think about the many programmes that have been implemented over the past five years intended to train young people to help them get work.
Further, we have insisted that work is becoming younger and more dynamic, or will be. How long will we be able to sustain the narrative of a “skills mismatch” given the many skills enhancement efforts undertaken by the corporate sector?
We have also gained interesting insights into who is being hired and who is being let go. We will be putting these into rigorous evaluations with experts, focus groups and an evaluation of existing research before adding them. What is clear is that the pervasive and stable narratives are not sufficient to explain the nature and causes of unemployment in SA.
HOW LONG WILL WE BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THE NARRATIVE OF A ‘SKILLS MISMATCH’ GIVEN THE MANY ENHANCEMENT EFFORTS BY THE CORPORATE SECTOR
It is also worth saying that discussions with labour union leaders tell interesting stories, which require investigation, especially from the side of employers.
It will not be enough to paint the contours of our unemployment crisis. We will have to deliberate on useful and credible solutions, which must be based on robust engagements across the board. Policy will have to be tested to see whether it has played a useful or detracting role in the crisis we face.
Lastly, the discussion on the effects of the fourth industrial revolution will only be interesting if it is conducted on a nuanced and strategic basis, rather than the bogeyman narrative that has dominated the news media.
Previous discussions and interventions have been limited in context and scope and marred by conjecture, sentiment and myth. It is clear that much more robust investigations and discussions aimed at multifaceted and sequenced solutions must be found and implemented.
Since it is clear that the trends are stratified into age groups and sectors, our analysis and solutions cannot be only macroeconomic in nature, but sectoral too.
● Payi is economist and founding director at Nascence Advisory and Research