For US, gateway to Africa shifting northwards from SA

Move over SA: Kenya is emerging as the new voice of Africa. In the two years since he became president, Cyril Ramaphosa has yet to visit the US. While Pretoria gazes longingly to the East, or lovingly at its own navel, Kenya and others have moved to occupy central positions in the USAfrica policy space.

Earlier in February, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta made the rounds in the US. He met President Donald Trump to discuss the preparation of a bilateral free trade agreement, taking time to attend the national prayer breakfast with rival Raila Odinga.

Though the terms are still under negotiation, Kenyatta and Trump signalled that they hope to sign the trade pact. This will be the first such US agreement with a sub-Saharan country.

The signature US-Africa trade programme is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which provides preferential US trade benefits to about 40 African countries. In 2017, total two-way trade between the US and subSaharan Africa stood at $36.9bn. SA was the top supplier to the US with $7.8bn in exports and $5bn in US imports to SA.

By comparison, Kenya is a minnow. In 2018, it exported $646m of goods (mostly agricultural) to the US, and imported goods worth $314m.

Kenyatta spoke at an event hosted by the Africa Centre at the Atlantic Council about “the future of the US-Kenya strategic partnership”. The room was packed with policy experts, representatives of US companies doing business on the continent, and interested Africans.

Reflecting on politics since African independence, Kenyatta said “Africa became a proxy ground for cold war. We in Kenya tried to tread a careful path between the two battling giants. Democracy was in retreat and authoritarians exploited the Cold War to entrench themselves. Leaders failed to build strong economies and we watched as Asian countries that started off poorer than some of us became rich.”

Kenya would not repeat the same mistakes, he said, and would work with China and the US, whose rivalry is playing itself out on the continent.

“The world must integrate Africa in the strategic schemes as more than just a continent producing security threats and unregulated migrations ... Africa is the world’s biggest opportunity ... Kenya can be a key country that can convert that opportunity into mutual gain,” he declared.

This is smart politics. It’s also the sort of talk that is music to many ears in Washington. In time-tested tradition, many in government and business will be happy to overlook the corruption that has become synonymous with Kenya’s rulers to get a piece of the East African action.

Bronwyn Bruton, director of programmes at the Africa Centre, praised Kenya for emerging as a standard bearer for growth, especially as “investors begin to worry about weakness and instability in other large African economies such as Nigeria, SA, Angola, and

Ethiopia”.

Kenyatta said he intends Kenya to become a “pacesetter” other countries can learn from when they engage with advanced economies. Kenyatta praised his country for having the best skilled labour force on the continent and its entrepreneurial drive, and said it is characterised by political stability and the rule of law.

It seems the “gateway to Africa” has shifted from Johannesburg (or was it Cape Town?) towards Nairobi.

In a clear message that SA’s clout in Washington is radically diminished, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo rushed through a four-state African visit touting US economic and military ties with the continent. SA was left off the list, and it was telling that he chose a platform in Addis Ababa to let SA know what the White House thinks of land expropriation without compensation.

Does Pretoria have a strategy to engage with Washington? Time will tell — but time is running out.