Even Trump might tire of Saudi prince’s serial meltdowns
Mohammed bin Salman, the mercurial young crown prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, is at it again: launching another palace coup at home and an oil price war with global consequences.
Last week he arrested Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the younger brother of his father, King Salman, and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, his cousin whom the heir to the Saudi throne deposed as crown prince in 2017.
Saudi sources present this as an attempt to nip a counter-coup in the bud or a reminder that Prince Mohammed deals ruthlessly with anyone who doubts his fitness to succeed. Either way it is characteristically heavy-handed.
It is unlikely that the two princes — both carefully monitored — were hatching a plot. It is a matter of opinion whether the arrests communicate control or exude paranoia.
Yet if Mohammed measured consequences, he might well conclude there are none.
Despite an outcry in the US Congress over the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul — the CIA has blamed the crown prince — he is set to host a Group of 20 (G20) summit in Riyadh in November.
US President Donald Trump, sold on the prince by Jared Kushner, his callow son-in-law, stood by his man. Trump has also vetoed attempts by Congress to target Saudi Arabia for the ruinous war the prince launched in Yemen and the US arms sales that support it.
Initial enthusiasm for the 34-year-old heir, who sought to embody the aspirations of a young population stifled by theocratic tutelage, was widespread. His ambition, to jump-start his kingdom from petro-paternalism into a modern state fired by private investment, has never been in doubt. What has long been in question is his judgment.
Trump has valued him as an ally who has promised vast US arms purchases; to support a one-sided Israel-Palestine settlement designed by Kushner; and to be in the front line of the regional conflict with Iran. Yet the crown prince signs more letters of intent than cheques, and King Salman has publicly repudiated his son’s private assurances to Kushner.
As for Iran, the prince was to make lots of bellicose noise. In practice, he led a blockade of Qatar, his tiny gas-rich neighbour, pushing it into the arms of Tehran. He detained Saad Hariri, then Lebanese premier and former Saudi client, clearing the way for Iran-backed Hezbollah to consolidate power in Beirut.
After the drone and missile attacks on Saudi oil facilities in September 2019 — almost certainly by Iran — revealed the kingdom’s vulnerability, Mohammed moderated his tone. But seemingly not his impulsive behaviour.
He may get a pass on his Shakespearean ways with his relatives. But he has also just started a disastrous oil price war in the middle of the Covid-19 crisis.
After three years in which Russia co-ordinated with the Saudis and the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) to shore up oil prices, last week Moscow declined to continue, believing this handed market share to the US. Mohammed’s instant reprisal was to slash prices.
That led to an oil price collapse and the heaviest stock market sell-off since the 2008 financial crisis.
Not a whit deterred, Riyadh followed up by announcing an increase in crude output from 9.7-billion barrels a day to 12.3-billion. This will flood the market, hurt leveraged US shale oil producers and, if stock market losses continue, harm the US economy. As Trump seeks re-election, he may well be revising his view of the prince who, far from leading a top-down Arab Spring, causes serial meltdowns.
In 1973 the late King Faisal used oil as a weapon during the Arab-Israeli war. That at least had a political aim.
This sudden engineering of an oil price collapse looks more like collateral damage, by a young despot out of his depth. This year’s G20 should be interesting.
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