We must walk the line drawn by Ramaphosa

If we have learnt one thing in the past few days it is how quickly things can change. Last week, we were getting a trickle of cases in SA, and the crisis was essentially a foreign one with eyes on China, Iran, Italy and a few other countries.

Even the UK and the US were not on the radar in terms of places to be worried about, a factor that was not helped by the way their governments communicated.

In the US, President Donald Trump vacillated between dismissing the outbreak as a hoax and calling on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more aggressively. At the weekend, the BBC reported that more than 200 scientists wrote a joint letter attacking the UK government’s casual approach and lack of restrictions like those in places in Italy, despite a death toll of more than 20.

As the Italian case has shown, the jump can reach uncontrollable levels in a short space of time and there can be no room for complacency. By Sunday, the total number of cases in Italy was reported at almost 25,000, with deaths approaching 2,000. Globally, the death toll exceeded 6,500, with total cases nearing 170,000. We are in the middle of a global pandemic.

We support President Cyril Ramaphosa’s proactive steps to try to contain the virus, though they are likely to impose economic and other costs to the nation, at least in the short term. Travel bans are pushing airlines stronger than SAA to their knees, and it’s hard to believe our national airline, already in business rescue, can survive this latest crisis.

“In the last few weeks we have seen a dramatic decline in economic activity in our trading partners, a sudden drop in tourism and severe instability across global markets,” the president said in an address broadcast on national television, as he announced a raft of measures including the closure of schools.

SA is to impose a ban, he said, on foreign nationals from highrisk countries such as Italy, Iran, the UK, US, South Korea, Spain, Germany and China, and visas to potential visitors from these countries have been revoked. Countries not usually subjected to visa regulations for short travel, such as the UK, will now be.

Locally, health minister Zweli Mkhize warned on Monday that if the spread of the virus is not contained, SA could impose a state of emergency and consider quarantining away from homes.

The big unknown is how SA will respond to the virus spreading to poorer parts of the country, where communication and medical infrastructure are not up to scratch. Millions of the working poor simply cannot afford to take time off work.

These people are less likely to self-isolate just because they have developed cold-like symptoms, and by the time they are reached by the health system they might have spread it to countless others. As constrained as SA’s fiscal space is, we need to come up with measures to encourage people to voluntarily stay away from work without fearing financial ruin.

And those in middle-class suburbs also need to be encouraged to behave responsibly. There are reports of widespread hoarding and empty supermarket shelves in the UK as people stock up on sanitisers, toilet paper and baby-milk formula in preparation for a potentially long lockdown. While from an individual perspective this might make sense, societally it can cause much damage. Excessive amounts of soap locked up in garages makes it more likely that people who need these products won’t have access. Perhaps it will be time for retailers, should they see evidence of a spike in hoarding, to restrict sales of key products.

There is no doubt we are in the midst of a crisis both on a local and global level. The government has to be commended on its communication efforts so far. We all need to play our role to keep ourselves and our communities safe, and the best way to do that is to follow the scientific advice and act responsibly.

THE BIG UNKNOWN IS HOW SA WILL RESPOND TO THE VIRUS SPREADING TO POORER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY