Experts fear corona underreporting
Global coronavirus cases surpassed 3.5-million on Monday and deaths neared a quarter of a million, according to a Reuters tally, reinforcing concern among experts of substantial underreporting even as the rates of fatalities and new cases slow.
Global coronavirus cases surpassed 3.5-million on Monday and deaths neared a quarter of a million, according to a Reuters tally, reinforcing concern among experts of substantial underreporting even as the rates of fatalities and new cases slow.
North American and European countries, where growth rates are easing, still accounted for most of the new infections reported in recent days. But case numbers were rising from smaller bases in Latin America, Africa and Russia, and experts expressed concern that the overall data may fall well short in determining the true extent of the pandemic.
Globally, there were 74,779 new cases over the past 24 hours, according to the tally of official government data, taking total cases to about 3.52-million.
That compares with about 3million to 5-million cases of severe illness caused annually by seasonal influenza, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO), but falls far short of the Spanish flu, which began in 1918 and infected an estimated 500million people.
“We still have to be sceptical about the numbers we get,” Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases physician and microbiologist at Canberra Hospital, said. “That’ sa huge problem. The mortality rate is also 10 times higher than for influenza in all age groups.”
Cases may cause only mild symptoms and not everyone with symptoms is tested, while most countries only record hospital deaths, meaning many deaths in private homes and nursing homes have not yet been included.
Deaths related to Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, stood at 246,920. The first was reported on January 10 in Wuhan, China, where the virus emerged in December.
The daily rate of new cases worldwide has been in a 2%-3% range over the past week, against a peak of about 13% in mid-March, prompting many countries to begin easing lockdown measures that have upended businesses and crippled the global economy.
The loosening of restrictions has proved controversial, however, as experts debate the best strategy to ensure there is no large “second wave” outbreak.
“We could easily have a second or a third wave because a lot of places aren’t immune,” Collignon said, noting that the world is well short of herd immunity, which requires about 60% of the population to have recovered from the disease.
Health officials have also expressed concern about the rising case numbers in countries with a shortfall in testing and a dearth of medical facilities.
WE COULD EASILY HAVE A SECOND OR A THIRD WAVE BECAUSE MANY PLACES AREN’T IMMUNE. THE WORLD IS WELL SHORT OF HERD IMMUNITY
While the number of new cases has come off a peak of 104,495 reported in a single day last week, it is still at about 75,000 to 90,000 cases per day globally.
In the US, about half the country’s state governors partially reopened their economies at the weekend, while others, including New York governor Andrew Cuomo, declared that the moves were premature.
In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who battled Covid-19 in April, said on Sunday the country is over the peak but it is still too early to relax lockdown measures.
Even in countries where the suppression of the disease has been considered successful, such as Australia and New Zealand which have recorded daily rates of new infections in the low single digits for weeks, officials have been cautious.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has predicated a full lifting of curbs in the country on widespread public adoption of a mobile phone tracing app and higher levels of testing.