State undermines itself with absurd rules
It is inevitable that the national lockdown will be eased further before long. The government has been holding consultations this past week with various stakeholders about the country’s readiness to move to level 3 at the end of May.
Measures are being discussed and put in place to ensure that this is done in a way that does not put people in unnecessary danger while at the same time giving the economy the breathing space it so sorely needs.
In the process of ensuring that measures are in place on a macro level, it will be as important to make sure that the easing goes hand-in-hand with cultural change. The crisis speaks to citizens’ behaviour, and this is where adaptation is going to be crucial.
This week modelling consortia that are advising the government gave presentations to the media on their models and the estimated cases of Covid-19 in the future. This was after pressure had mounted on the government to release details about the models it is using to guide its response to the pandemic.
Some projections put the number of deaths at more than 40,000 by November and show that the country could run out of intensive-care beds by June or July. There have been even higher projections of about 88,000 deaths. However, the reality is that there is still a lot of uncertainty about the way the pandemic will play out in SA, and the models are being updated weekly.
There is consensus that the peak of the pandemic has not hit us yet, with most models predicting it could arrive in a month or two. These projections do not amount to fearmongering. If anything, they should make people realise how serious the situation is.
But SA cannot stay in lockdown forever, and as many experts have pointed out it has served its main purpose of “flattening the curve”.
When asked whether the modellers believe the lockdown should be extended, Sheetal Silal of the Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (Masha) at the University of Cape Town, said it was not up to them to make such decisions. “It is an economic decision and a social decision that requires consultation with all aspects of government,” she said.
There is not yet any way of eradicating the novel coronavirus, though it has been stated that we have been able to curb its spread in SA because of the lockdown, one of the strictest in the world. What has been emphasised is that we now need a rapid and aggressive change in behaviour countrywide, and this is clearly where the problem lies.
It requires that precautions such as wearing a mask in public, practising social distancing and sanitising religiously are taken seriously and not just treated as suggestions. Unfortunately, this does not seem to be the case at present in large swathes of the country.
In part the government is to blame for this. The country has been in lockdown for more than seven weeks. Along with this came some bizarre regulations that do not make sense to those affected by them. They cause people to get angry and frustrated, and when this happens many rebel and lose the will to adhere to irrational orders.
On top of this we have spatial issues in our townships and informal settlements, coupled with hundreds of thousands of desperate people who, understandably, are more concerned about feeding themselves and their families after weeks without income than with the need for social distancing and washing hands.
It is not possible for the government to police all people’s behaviour everywhere at all times. What is needed is clear and rational communication from our leaders on the importance of the cultural change we have to embark on. We don’t need overreaching regulations; we need reason.
David Makhura, the premier of the country’s most populous province, Gauteng, said on Thursday there were areas where life was continuing as normal, with people playing sports in groups and not wearing masks or adhering to social distancing. He rightly pointed out that “the critical issue in our communities is that the police cannot force people to wear masks. It is not the job of the police to help change behaviour.”
Makhura said as the province moved to get businesses and sectors of the economy ready for level 3, it would be focusing heavily on community participation. That is the right way to go. We need to get communities on board. People need to realise that by protecting themselves, they are protecting those around them.
But for communities to get on board, there needs to be a social compact with the government. Unfortunately, this is eroded every time a minister makes a nonsensical comment, a citizen gets beaten up or humiliated in public in the name of enforcing the lockdown, or an NGO is stopped from feeding the hungry.
The nanny state mentality that has reared its ugly head during the lockdown will not do anything to bring citizens on board, which will leave us all at increased risk, playing a perpetual blame game.
WE NOW NEED A RAPID AND AGGRESSIVE CHANGE IN BEHAVIOUR COUNTRYWIDE, AND THIS IS WHERE THE PROBLEM LIES
A SOCIAL COMPACT IS ERODED EVERY TIME A MINISTER MAKES A NONSENSICAL COMMENT, OR A CITIZEN GETS BEATEN UP OR HUMILIATED