How big is the ANC’s Magashule moment?

The suspension of secretary-general Ace Magashule is a huge moment for the ANC. The party did not reach the grand age of 109 by accident: it has a remarkable ability to pull itself back from the brink of disaster, regroup and advance again. The suspension of Magashule is one of those inflection points and will give new hope to some who had almost lost it all. Though this is qualified and temporary, it will be a unifying experience at leadership and grass roots level.

While there has been some support for Magashule, it has been limited. The national executive committee (NEC) stood firm against him last weekend and the outpouring of emotion on radio talk shows and social media from ANC members expressing their approval at the move has left no doubt about where public sentiment lies.

Many commentators have also concluded the way is cleared for President Cyril Ramaphosa to implement “his reform agenda”. How likely is this? In the ANC, the reform agenda is mapped out in the organisational renewal resolution from the 2017 conference. This resolution is nine pages long, notes that the previous conference resolution on organisational renewal also remains relevant having not yet been implemented, and has reams of points of resolve. It is the part on “dealing with corruption” that has received the most attention since August, when criminal charges against Magashule became an issue.

It is from this section that the “step-aside” rule emanates in a clause that states that the ANC will “summarily suspend people who fail to give an acceptable explanation or to voluntarily step down, while they face disciplinary, investigative or prosecutorial procedures”. It is clear from this, as Magashule’s supporters have argued, that it is not just those charged but also those who are under investigation who should step down. The NEC, advised by former senior leaders Kgalema Motlanthe and Mathews Phosa, has decided on a narrow, some have said selective, interpretation.

In addition, swept aside in the resolution — notably by Ramaphosa in his discussion with deputy chief justice Raymond Zondo — is the clause that resolves that “every cadre accused of, or reported to be involved in, corrupt practices accounts to the integrity committee immediately or faces disciplinary committee processes”. At the commission Ramaphosa essentially struck out this option, arguing — to Zondo’s amazement — that it was impossible to hold internal disciplinary processes until a person has been convicted in a court, as they may well turn out to be innocent.

One area where Ramaphosa has made a good start on reform is the request from the NEC to Motlanthe to establish an electoral committee (also flowing from the resolution) that will make rules for ANC candidate selection. As selection has been notoriously corrupt and a central pillar of the patronage system, this could result in meaningful reform. But other pillars of patronage — the policy of cadre deployment, most notably — are not up for discussion.

This is the pattern of reform in the ANC. With the exception of the Zuma years, the ANC is seldom completely a one-way bet. It reforms enough to prolong its life, but never enough to mess with the delicate balance of internal power and patronage. And it reforms enough to throw out the really bad apples, but never enough to deal with factionalism. In a patronagebased system where the rewards of office are so high, factions will always manifest as those who are shut out of power fight to get in.

And what about the state? Do the latest events in the ANC open the way for Ramaphosa to speed up reform? To the extent that the ANC is less likely, for a short period, to spend time fighting over the proxy demands of Magashule’s “radical economic transformation” faction, such as the nationalisation of the SA Reserve Bank, things will be slightly better. But in the cabinet Ramaphosa still sits with a majority of ministers who have not bought into his reform agenda.

Most problematic is mineral resources & energy minister Gwede Mantashe, who has launched SA on a path of dangerous adventurism with a plan, which now stinks of corruption as well as poor judgment, to bring in Turkish power ships. On the broadband front communications minister Stella Ndabeni-Abrahams’s lack of pragmatism and imagination has sunk the state into what will be at least 12 months of litigation, with allocation spectrum nowhere on the horizon.

As for the others, too many are obsessed with their own political careers and agendas. They cannot be relied on to do the best thing for the country. Changing this is not impossible but will require a braver and bolder Ramaphosa than we have seen so far.