Boris Johnson gambles in lifting Covid restrictions

July is proving to be an interesting month for freedom-minded individuals. Apart from important historical landmarks such as US Independence Day on July 4 and Bastille Day on July 14, England’s “Freedom Day” on July 19 is being met with a mixture of joy and trepidation.

Joy because it means the end of official restrictions on social distancing and mask wearing, but trepidation about the possible consequences of this perceived free-for-all as the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases continues to rise exponentially, due mainly to the highly contagious Delta variant.

The devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are taking a more cautious approach, but even there most legal restrictions, apart from mask wearing in public places, will be removed by early August.

The waters are further muddied by London mayor Sadiq Khan insisting that face coverings must still be worn on London Transport after July 19.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is taking a big gamble with this exercise. He is hoping that the link between the number of cases and hospital admissions and deaths from the virus has been broken. Only time will tell if it has.

The UK government’s vaccination rollout has been a resounding success. Almost 70% of the total UK population has received a first dose of the vaccine, with just more than 52% having received both doses. More than a year ago, it took the view that it needed to begin organising strategic stockpiles of the vaccine, even before it had been developed or indeed been shown to be effective.

ENCOURAGING TREND

That was a leap of faith, especially with the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine, the main one used for inoculation in the UK. This has been just about its only real success during the pandemic, with dismal failures in procurement of personal protective equipment at the start of the outbreak and colossal waste of money, estimated at £37bn (R735bn), on a track-andtrace system that did not work.

Statistically, Johnson’s claim that the link between the number of cases as well as hospital admissions, and deaths has been broken is borne out to an extent by the numbers. But the number of hospital admissions and deaths is starting to rise again, though by no means in line with case numbers. England is averaging about 45,000 cases a day and about 50 deaths. Even a cursory glance at a graph depicting these statistics shows clearly that the trend is encouraging.

But recently appointed health secretary Sajid Javid has cautioned that cases could easily hit 100,000 a day in the next few weeks, with daily deaths averaging about 200.

That would still be a significantly lower death toll than was the case in January 2021 at the peak of the third wave of infection. There will probably be big surges in infection due to the lack of social distancing at major sporting events in London recently, such as the final of the Euro football championships at Wembley Stadium, where an estimated 75,000 fans congregated for more than two hours on July 11.

MASS VACCINATION

Britain’s National Health Service (NHS) is far from being overwhelmed by Covid-19 patients, but it is desperately trying to catch up on medical procedures delayed last year and earlier this year due to the pandemic. Cancer and cardiacrelated deaths in Britain each average about 700 a day. Delaying treatment for such patients means the death toll will undoubtedly rise.

While anything to do with this virus is a moving target and mutations make it increasingly difficult to predict the likely trajectory of cases and deaths, it does seem that mass vaccination is the magic bullet that many thought it would be.

A worrying postscript is that 60% of current Covid-19 hospital admissions are among those who have been double vaccinated.

It is becoming clear that vaccination probably needs to be augmented, at least for a while yet, by nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing.