The shocking state of SA is the real issue
Last week, the day after Stats SA released new unemployment statistics, an independent parliamentary panel report found that President Cyril Ramaphosa may have a serious case to answer for violations of the constitution and law after the burglary at his farm.
Speculation about whether the president would resign or face an impeachment inquiry overshadowed the shocking state of Eskom and the economy, even though Ramaphosa also has a case to answer for the mismanagement of Eskom, the economy and the unemployment crisis.
As people worried about the country’s future, political commentator Eusebius McKaiser reminded us in a podcast that SA “is in a huge Ramaphosa crisis under”the . When leadership we talk of of short-term pain, he said, we must not pretend the status quo is painless and that SA was a stable country last week.
When people ask what life might be like under David Mabuza or another ANC leader, McKaiser said: “Please be mindful of the fact that life under Ramaphosa is terrible.”
Indeed, on Sunday, a hot summer day countrywide, South Africans experienced more than six hours without power, with 22,718MW of Eskom’s total generation capacity almost half down due to planned maintenance and unplanned breakdowns. The outlook for power supply over the next year is frightening.
Last weekend, during a trip to my family home in KwaNobuhle township, Kariega, people talked about a surge in crime over the past year. The community is terrified. A relative woke up to a dead body on the street, a victim of fights over tenders. A cousin witnessed the hijacking of a truck carrying catalytic converters. Tavern owners and other small businesses pay protection fees, and the gangsters kill each other over the proceeds. We are a gangster nation. After 28 years of democracy, nothing has changed in KwaNobuhle. It is one of the most miserable places in SA.
According to Stats SA’s quarterly labour force survey for the third quarter, there are now 11.9-million unemployed South Africans. The jobless rate for people of all races and ages was 43.1% but that obscured a rate of 70.4% for youths aged 15
to 24, 47.6% for black Africans and 51.4% for black African women, the most marginalised group in the economy. The Eastern Cape has an unemployment rate of 51.4%.
There are four ways to slice the data:
From December 2008 to September 2022, the labour force grew by 7-million people and the economy created 1-million jobs, so the number of unemployed people increased by 6-million and the unemployment rate increased to 43.1% from 28.7%. Since Ramaphosa became president, the labour force has grown by 2.3-million people, while the economy has shed 400,000 jobs, so the number of unemployed people increased by 2.7-million and the unemployment rate increased to 43.1% from 36.3%.
Since the Covid-19 lockdowns, the labour force has increased by 517,000 people, while the economy has shed 618,000 jobs, so the number of unemployed people has increased by 1.1-million people and the unemployment rate has risen to 43.1% from 39.7%. Since the start of 2022, the labour force has increased by 659,000, while the economy has created 1.2-million jobs, probably in part due to improved collection of statistics and the reopening of the economy. The number of unemployed people increased by 561,000, and the unemployment rate declined to 43.1% from 46.1%.
With the economy set to grow by just 1.6% a year from 2023 to 2025, according to the Treasury, the outlook for job creation remains bleak. All the ANC factions have reached out to me independently this year. None of them has a plan to address Eskom, the economy or the unemployment crisis.
At its elective conference next week, the focus will be on choosing a party president and members of its national executive committee. The ANC will pretend to discuss the economy and jobs, but it is clear it has given up on itself and does not want to govern any more.