ANC support falls below 50% poll —
Raw data by the Social Research Foundation (SRF), a think-tank focusing on public policy issues and the promotion of democracy, shows the governing ANC’s electoral support at 45.9%.
That is in line with several polls, including by the ANC itself, indicating support for the governing party is set to fall below the 50% mark in the provincial and national elections in 2024.
Political and economic pundits have said this could force the ANC, which has offered unions representing SA’s more than 1.3million public servants a 7.5% wage offer, to embrace populist policies to stay in power.
According to the report looking at SA’s political state of play at the end of March, the DA is polling at 23.3%, followed by the EFF — SA’s third-largest political party — at 8.4%.
The SRF stressed, however, that the survey data was not a forecast of SA’s 2024 national election result.
The survey, which has a national margin of error of 4%, is based on a survey of 1,517 demographically and geographically representative registered voters commissioned by the foundation.
“When the data is modelled for turnout, support for the ANC rises to between 52% and 53% and that for the DA to between 24% and 25%. This is on par with the figures recorded in 2022,” the SRF said.
“Our interpretation of the data is that ANC support is stable at just over 50%, that [support] for the DA is stable at just under 25%, [and support] for the EFF is down sharply [at 6%]….”
Paul Berkowitz, director of The Third Republic, a nonprofit focused on deepening democracy in SA, said he had questions and concerns about the survey and results.
“The margin of error is 4%, meaning that the true support level for any party could be 4% higher or lower than the poll,” Berkowitz said.
“This is significant, particularly for small parties. The poll has the EFF at a support level of 8.4%, so the true value could be anywhere between 4.4% and 12.4%. So you can’t draw any strong conclusions about ActionSA, IFP, FF+ and ACDP.
“The poll says that ActionSA’s support has fallen by 1%-1.5%, but it might have grown by as much as 3%, given the margin of error. The SRF acknowledges this,” Berkowitz said.
“I have questions about how the SRF models for turnout. The increase in ANC support, DA high and stable at 25%, sharp drop in the EFF — [are] all different from my modelling and assumptions. I see a bigger share for ActionSA and smaller for ANC and DA.”
ANC leaders including its national chair, Gwede Mantashe, and former Gauteng premier David Makhura have publicly criticised the party, characterising it as a “self-absorbed organisation” that was at war with itself, arrogant, out of touch with society and dogged by a trust deficit.
They have warned that the party, which is besieged by governance, administrative and financial challenges, risked losing the 2024 elections if it did not focus on what matters the most: service delivery.