Nothing burns like the cold, but we have wind and sun to fill power gap

Winter is approaching, and it is often said that nothing burns like the cold. With units out at Eskom’s key power stations — two at Koeberg, one at Medupi and three at Kusile, amounting to 6,000MW collectively and equal to six stages of load-shedding — I would say we are in for a glacial time.

Except we have the sun and the wind to fill the power gap, according to electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, who is looking at unveiling a mega bid window of more than 15,000MW of additional renewables.

All things being equal — though they never are — that should bridge the gap and it is welcome. We must, however, take into account that renewables have a capacity factor of about 30% (and while numbers vary within a band, the capacity is, on balance, relatively low), which means you could get only about 5,000MW from the 15,000MW new window. And they wouldn’t be dispatchable — a source of electricity to an electrical power system, such as a power plant, that can be turned on or off or, in other words that can adjust power output supplied to the electrical grid on demand.

The ability to adjust power output supplied to the grid on demand is essential for maintaining grid stability, balancing supply and demand, improving energy efficiency, and integrating renewable energy sources. But Eskom, in its current form, is hardly geared to deliver either. Despite assurances from Ramokgopa, Unit 4 at Medupi, having been hit by a devastating explosion in August 2021 and seriously behind with repairs, is hardly likely to come online within the short term. As for promises to return Units 1, 2 and 3 at Kusile to generation, know this: with water and steam in the system and an inability to restart within a prescribed period, corrosion sets in that affects start-up and heralds failures down the line.

Then there’s the matter of the quality and capability of those who effect maintenance. In each of Eskom’s power plants, tripping is a perennial problem — a problem rooted in reliability maintenance. To deal with these, the operating envelopes, which include factors such as the maximum and minimum levels of power output, temperature, pressure, fuel consumption and other operating parameters, need to be reset.

The problem is that maintenance is outsourced to often crooked cadres who don’t know a spanner from a wrench.

What about burning diesel to keep the lights on? Well, the open cycle gas turbine units were designed for 10% dispatch, and Ramokgopa wants Eskom to run these at 60% — no prizes for guessing what’s in store down the pipeline.

Then there’s the question of whether Eskom can afford the diesel spend, or indeed accommodate the volumes. Take Ankerlig power station, one of five diesel-to-gas turbine power plants in SA that has the capacity to produce 1,338MW. It has an on-site storage tank of 16.2-million litres; the balance of the fuel, around 75-million litres, would have had to be transported to Ankerlig by road tanker. That would need 1,500 road tanker trips — or 50 road tanker trips a day. There simply aren’t enough trucks, let alone the money required for this. Bear in mind that the generation of 2MW empties a diesel truck in one hour.

But back to the fixes. Can the installed capacity be shored up to meet minimum demand at the very least? The informed answer is yes, but not with the current configuration of human resources at Eskom. It requires a mix of international and historically competent local experts and concomitant assurances around current loan covenants, as well as guarantees for future loans — if the company can raise them.

The trouble is the labour unions will be against a repositioning and the importation of competent staff at the expense of useless and damaging cadres within the belly of the utility. And then there’s the micromanaging public enterprises minister, who needs to secure votes and do the president’s bidding. I’ll leave you to connect the dots as to who will be the serious beneficiaries of the solutions Ramokgopa and public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan will eventually champion.

Assuming those hurdles could be overcome — a tall order in anyone’s book given the self-inflicted shareholder impediments — what is to be done to secure Eskom and augment generation in the adjacencies to the utility? What needs to be addressed now in the face of the lengthy lead times needed for traditional solutions, the convoluted and almost evergreen contracts of the environmentally and corruption-feeding opacity of the Karpowership option, and the lowcapacity factor and dispatchability besetting renewables?

I would argue that we need to fix Eskom’s installed capacity, having rid the company of all its damaging dead wood, to open up the playing fields to independent generation by industrial consumers; encourage and subsidise rooftop solar for domestic and business use; and fast-track gas and oil development in view of recent discoveries in Namibia and SA.

And here’s a potential kicker for immediate adjacent support: investigate with urgency ideas like a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) — mainly methane in cryogenic storage — platform at Coega that is capable of setup in 24 months and that will produce multiple thousands of megawatts from gas turbines. There is plenty of LNG around, and favourable long-term contracts can be negotiated. In parallel, the grid requires attention, but that needs serious money.

At a localised level, the importance of taking steps to assist cannot be underestimated.

That is precisely what the Western Cape government is doing as it proposes a range of policies, strategies and actions that will allow the province to develop a sustainable portfolio of energy sources while also reducing pollution and increasing access to energy for all citizens.

Likewise, the City of Cape Town understands that energy concern is cross-sectoral and must be handled in an integrated manner.

In line with this, Cape Town has issued a tender for 200MW of renewable energy plants, while activating a“Power Heroes”campaign for residents to be rewarded for voluntarily reducing demand by 60MW when needed.

The city is also breaking down regulatory barriers to residential solar, and plans to procure 500MW from large renewable energy plus batteries, and gas to power projects.

Cape Town’s plans and the province’s strategies lay the foundation for a clean energy system in future as it increases renewables in the generation mix and couples this with battery storage and demand flexibility to handle times when renewable energy is not available. No guesses as to which party governs there. That said, every bit helps.

THE PROBLEM IS THAT MAINTENANCE IS OUTSOURCED TO OFTEN CROOKED CADRES WHO DON ’ T KNOW A SPANNER FROM A WRENCH